ECB Decision Dilemma: Examining the Hawkish Hike and Its Potential Impact on Rates and FX

ECB cheat sheet: Is a hike hawkish enough?

Markets are torn. Will the ECB hike this week or not? We think it will, but we look at how different scenarios can impact rates and FX. Even in our base case, we suspect that convincing markets that this is not the peak will be very hard, and dovish dissenters may get in the way. The upside for EUR rates and the euro may not be that big and above all, quite short-lived.

 

 

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As discussed in our economics team’s European Central Bank meeting preview, we narrowly favour a rate hike this week. The consensus of economists is slightly tilted towards a hold, and markets also see a greater chance of no change (60%). In the chart above, we analyse four different scenarios, including our base case, and the projected impact on EUR/USD and 10-year bunds.

We expect to see a more fragmented than usual Governing Council at this meeting. Whichever direction the ECB decides to take, the debate will likely be fiercer than in previous meetings, as lingering core inflationary pressure is being counterbalanced by evidence of rapidly worsening economic conditions in the euro area. Accordingly, expect the overall messaging by the ECB to be influenced not only by the written communication but also by: a) how much President Christine Lagarde manages to conceal growing division and disharmony within the Governing Council during the press conference and; b) any post-meeting “leaks” to the media, which could be used by dissenters to influence the market impact.