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GDP growth
Articles related to GDP growth
Inflation in Poland - Forecast for the Coming Months. What Happens Next with Interest Rates?
Obvious decision. The Polish zloty PLN depends on geopolitics, not on RPP
Euro and Dollar Exchange Rate - Forecasts for the Coming Days. Polish Zloty Overvalued, Dollar Under Pressure
Oil prices are higher today again, the zloty strengthens to 4.22 (EUR/PLN)
Eurozone PMI Signals Resilient Growth Despite Manufacturing Slowdown
The composite PMI dropped from 52.8 to 51.9 in December, with manufacturing output declining again. Overall, this reading still corresponds to decent GDP growth for the eurozone in the fourth quarter of 2025
Industrial Output Weakens in October, Underscoring Italy’s Slow Exit from Stagnation
Italy’s industrial production data for October points to renewed weakness, tempering expectations of a stronger economic pickup in the final quarter of the year
Poland’s Strong Consumption and Investment Point to Robust Growth with Mild Inflation Outlook
Combine rebounding investment with continued strength in private spending and you have a recipe for stronger economic growth. October's set of data suggests that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is likely to beat the 3.7% year-on-year rate posted in the third. At the same time, inflation is declining, which paves the way for another rate cut in December
Germany’s Economy: Three Years of Stagnation With Only Limited Signs of Recovery
Same old story: Germany’s longest stagnation has now been confirmed. The economy will remain stuck until fiscal stimulus begins to take effecta
Japan: Large Fiscal Stimulus to Boost Growth and Curb Inflation, JGB Pressur
Japan's stimulus package targets inflation stabilisation, strengthening defence and diplomacy, and sustainable growth. It should spur short-term growth and reduce inflation, but may put pressure on JGBs. The BoJ's policy normalisation will likely continue, though it faces challenges and may proceed at a slower pace
France: Services Rebound Amid Industrial Slowdown, Limited Growth Expected in 2026
French business confidence and PMI indicators edged higher in November, driven by renewed optimism in the service sector. This rebound could support growth in the coming months, despite more mixed signals from industry
East Asia Economic Outlook: BOK Holds Rates, Industrial Growth Continues, CPI and GDP Updates
The Bank of Korea is expected to hold the rates steady. Meanwhile, data highlights include Chinese industrial profits, Tokyo inflation, Korean and Taiwanese industrial production and Indian GDP
Philippines Q3 GDP Slows Sharply as Investment and Consumption Weaken
Third-quarter GDP growth disappointed at 4.0% YoY, dragged down by weak investment and softer government spending, while exports provided temporary support. We downgrade our 2025 growth forecast to 4.7% (from 5.2%) as sentiment weakens and tariff headwinds loom, reinforcing our call for a 25bp central bank rate cut in December
Hungary’s Economy Stagnates as Inflation Outlook and Labour Pressures Intensify
In our latest update, we reassess our Hungarian economic and market forecasts at a time when we are still waiting for the end of stagnation and hoping for better days to come. The economy is starving for those order book fillings, and also a big dollop of extra confidence
Manufacturing Contracts for the Eighth Consecutive Month
The ISM manufacturing index suggests that the US industrial sector remains under pressure from weak growth and tariff-related uncertainty. The one consolation is that inflation pressures appear to be easing, but the Fed hawks will want to see broader evidence of this before backing a December rate cut
Czech Manufacturing Weakens as Orders and Confidence Slide; Risks Mount for 2026
Conditions in manufacturing have deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month, which can undoubtedly be viewed as a negative signal for the economy when looking ahead. Although below the expansionary threshold, the PMI is nowhere near the depressed 2023 levels. Should the hard times continue, an adverse effect on growth in 2026 is a possibility
South Korea’s Export Momentum Remains Solid Despite Slowdown in October
South Korean exports increased in October despite fewer working days due to the Chuseok holiday. US tariffs had a clear negative effect, but robust semiconductor and vessel exports offset the impact. With the trade agreement concluded, improved export conditions are expected to support growth in 2026
Spain’s Growth Cools but Remains Resilient Amid Broader European Slowdown
Spain’s economy grew by 0.6% over the third quarter, following a robust second quarter, as external demand weakened. With signs of cooling in industrial activity and tourism, growth is expected to normalise over the coming quarters and into 2026
Italian Confidence Rebounds: Consumers and Manufacturers Signal a Stronger Fourth Quarter
Italy's October batch of confidence data marks an improvement in all monitored sectors but services. This is good news for Italian growth perspectives in the fourth quarter
Bank of Korea Likely to Resume Rate Cuts in Early 2026 Amid Housing Market Uncertainty
The Bank of Korea kept its benchmark rate steady at 2.5%, signaling a shift toward a less dovish policy stance. For the second consecutive meeting, one member dissented, while a growing number prioritised financial market stability over economic growth
Zloty Holds Firm Despite Global Turmoil, Supported by Strong Carry and Solid Growth Outlook
Some of the best performing currencies in the CEE region have started to hand back some of their gains as markets question whether central banks will have to turn more dovish. That's particularly been the case in Hungary. However, our call is that rate cuts are delayed, and the forint can continue to enjoy carry trade interest. CZK and ZAR should also do well
Italy’s Industrial Production Contracts Sharply, Weighing on Q3 Growth Prospects
August’s Italian production numbers suggest that a hoped-for timid improvement in the third quarter has not materialised. While some caveats should apply when dealing with summertime data, it would seem the onus now lies with a growth in services
BSP Cuts Policy Rate to 4.75% Amid Growth Concerns and Low Inflation
In a dovish turn, the Philippines’ central Bank, the BSP, has cut rates by 25bp to 4.75%, citing softening growth and subdued inflation. Infrastructure spending concerns and corruption scandals add downside risks to our 2026 GDP outlook. The chances of a final 25bp rate cut in December have increased meaningfully
CIS Region: Growth Resilience Persists Despite Inflation and External Pressures
The CIS region remains resilient amid global uncertainty, with growth outperforming expectations despite persistent inflation and external pressures. Fundamental improvements and ratings upgrades are supportive of sovereign credit in the region, while we expect further steady issuance
Romania: Retail Sales Slump Signals Cooling Consumer Demand Amid Fiscal Tightening
Romanian consumers have recently hit the brakes, signalling increased caution. While some of the August slowdown can be attributed to pre-emptive spending ahead of tax hikes, that doesn’t fully explain the drop. We do not expect this steep decline to become the norm, but caution is likely to persist into year-end and early 2026
Romania: Inflation Pressures Persist, but a More Dovish NBR Stance May Be on the Horizon
Despite inflation nearing double digits and real rates staying negative, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) is expected to maintain its cautious stance at its 8 October meeting, prioritising stability amid weakening consumption and uncertain growth prospects
RBA Holds Rates Steady Amid Inflation Concerns, AUD Outlook Remains Strong
The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its cash rate steady at 3.6%, in line with expectations. The cautious stance reflects concern over rising headline CPI inflation. As it stands, we think the probability of a rate cut at the November meeting has meaningfully diminished. The Aussie dollar remains supported
Dutch Economy: Fragile Confidence and Modest Growth Ahead
Sentiment in Dutch commercial services and retail cooled in September, according to fresh data from the European Commission. While the mood isn’t gloomy, it does echo our view that growth remains stuck below potential – for now
Eurozone Economy: Sluggish but Resilient Amid Trade Risks
The economy remains on track to see a small improvement in GDP growth in the third quarter as uncertainty fades and big shocks to trade have been avoided
Tariffs, Fed Cuts, and Market Jitters: What Really Drives Investors Now
Last week ended on a positive note despite fresh tariff threats on pharma, trucks and kitchen cabinets. PCE data coming in line with expectations helped keep investor mood sweet after a week of hesitation. The S&P 500 rebounded after a three-day retreat, the Stoxx 600 held above its 50-DMA, and even the pharma-heavy SMI index bounced from August lows – confirming that trade news has become usual bad news.
US Dollar Extends Rally on Strong Data and Technical Breakout Amid Geopolitical Tensions
The US Dollar has been rallying steadily since its pre-FOMC lows, with Powell’s not-so-dovish speech last week marking the start of a V-shape reversal from the sharp pre-meeting downfall.
Italian Confidence Indicators Signal Stabilisation but Recovery Remains Fragile
Following a second quarter still heavily impacted by the introduction of new US tariffs, early data for the third quarter points to a very mild improvement, though sectoral contributions remain uneven. Today’s confidence indicators for September appear to support this view
Czech Manufacturing Shows Resilience Amid Supply Chain Challenges
August’s PMI remained in the contraction zone, as supply chain issues dampened output. However, new orders increased, and confidence remained upbeat. The Czech economy appears poised to hum along smoothly, with no need for loose monetary policy
ECB Minutes Highlight Balanced Risks but Keep Rate Cut Option Alive for September
The just-released minutes of the ECB’s July meeting show that the central bank entered the summer break with a strong feeling that the job was done and that the bar had been set high for another rate cut. Still, this wait-and-see stance had at least a touch of an easing bias
Italy Struggles to Reignite Growth as Confidence Weakens Across Key Sectors
August confidence indicators paint a picture of economic inertia, with growth momentum still concentrated in the services sector
BSP Delivers 25bp Cut, Signals End of Easing Cycle as Growth Slows
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) lowered its policy rate by 25bp to 5.00%, signalling a neutral stance amid stable inflation and slowing – but resilient – growth. While the easing cycle is nearing its end, one final rate cut this year remains likely, given our view of weaker GDP growth in the second half of the year
Bank of Korea Holds Rates as Housing Concerns Persist, Eyes Easing Ahead
The Bank of Korea held policy rates at 2.5%, with a dissenting vote raising expectations for an October rate cut. The BoK’s cautious growth view also suggests more rate cuts may be on the way in 2026
Oil Boosts NOK as USD Weakens; Markets Watch China Tariffs and PMIs
Hopes for a swift resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have proven vain. Discussions between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy yielded no breakthrough, with market expectations for a 2025 ceasefire dropping from around 40% to below 25%.
South Korea’s Consumer Sentiment Strengthens for Fifth Consecutive Month
South Korea’s latest fiscal stimulus contributed to improved consumer sentiment and greater growth momentum. But these effects may prove temporary. Even so, the Bank of Korea will stand pat later this week, as it focuses more on housing prices.
Polish Retail Sales Rebound in July, Supporting Stronger Consumption Outlook
Retail sales in July rose by 4.8%YoY in Poland, rebounding from June’s weaker 2.2% figure. The June dip was a one-off weakness and most likely reflected a temporary shift in consumer spending from goods to services, driven by increased travel and hospitality outlays during the Corpus Christi long weekend
Japan’s Core Inflation and the Rising Likelihood of a BoJ Rate Hike
Japan’s July consumer price inflation data was broadly in line with the market consensus. Headline inflation slowed thanks to falling energy and utility prices. Yet, core prices remain sticky and well above 3%. We believe core price trends will prompt the BoJ to hike rates as early as October
Bank Indonesia Cuts Policy Rate Again Amid Slowing Growth; Further Easing Expected
Bank Indonesia (BI) delivered a surprise second consecutive rate cut, signalling a clear focus on growth despite recent strong data. With inflation still below target and US Federal Reserve easing expected from September, we now see BI front-loading its final 25bp cut to the fourth quarter of this
Flash GDP Data Confirms Modest 0.3% Growth Amid Weak Consumer Confidence and Mixed Sector Performance
Today’s flash GDP data has confirmed our forecast for the second quarter, with annual growth continuing to expand at a modest 0.3% pace. We don’t expect major improvements at this stage, with risks actually tilted to the downside, and we continue to expect a 0.3% advance for the full year in 2025
Poland Posts Surprise Current Account Surplus in June Amid Trade and Export Shifts
Poland’s external current account surplus in June was a positive surprise, as it was also driven by a positive balance in merchandise trade. One data reading does not necessarily signal a new trend – but it may suggest a change in underlying macro developments, especially softer domestic demanda
Norges Bank Prepares for Hawkish Cut Amid Mixed Economic Signals
At its last meeting in January, Norges Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.5% but reiterated the guidance that “the policy rate will likely be reduced in March”. Since then, spot activity data remained subdued, but the labour market showed signs of resilience and business expectations turned more positive.
China’s High-Tech Manufacturing: A New Growth Engine Amid Structural Headwinds
Czech National Bank Poised for Aggressive Rate Cut: Unpacking Monetary Policy Dynamics, Market Reactions, and Economic Forecasts
French Industrial Output Rebounds, Signaling a Positive Start to 2024, but GDP Growth Remains Weak
US Economy's Fairytale: Q4 GDP Surges by 3.3%, Defying High Rates and Falling Inflation
ECB and US Q4 GDP in Focus: Divergence in Markets and Potential Rate Cut Discussions
Eurozone PMIs: Tentative Signs of Stabilization Amid Ongoing Economic Challenge
Rates Spark: Evaluating the Near-Term Risks and Expectations for Higher Rates
Chinese Yuan Faces Pressure Amidst Persistent Deflation: A Weekly Review and Outlook
Global Market Overview: Mixed Signals from China and Taiwan, Currency Moves Set Tone for the Week
Navigating Global Trade Challenges: New Inefficiencies Emerge, but Trade Resilience Prevails in 2024
Inflation Challenges: US CPI Disappoints, Diminishing Odds of Early Fed Rate Cut
European Staffing Sector Faces Varied Hiring Prospects in 2024 Amid Economic Challenges
2024 Brings a Challenging Landscape: European Staffing Sector Faces Contraction Amid Economic Slowdown and Persistent Labor Market Tightness
Rates Puzzle: Powell's Silence and Central Banks' Divergence
Cautious Tone of Polish MPC Governor Press Conference: Rates Expected to Remain Unchanged Until March 2024
2024 Economic Outlook: Unpacking the ECB Hike Cycle and Its Implications
Romanian Economy Shows Resilience: Q3 Growth Revised Upward
The Dynamics of Hungary's Labour Market Amidst Economic Changes and Inflation
Upcoming Economic Data: Focus on US Manufacturing Index, Eurozone CPI, and GDP Reports in Hungary and Poland
German Economy Faces Persistent Stagnation: Factors, Challenges, and Uncertainties
Nikkei 225 Analysis: Medium-Term Uptrend Amid Economic Downgrade and Correlation Flip
Poland's Solid Labour Market Spurs Spending Bounce Back: 2024 Economic Growth Prospects
Eurozone Navigates Shallow Technical Recession Amid Lingering Inflation Pressures
Poland's Economic Rebound: Retail Sales and Construction Surge in Fourth Quarter
US Retail Sales and PPI Data Support Soft Landing Narrative Amid Subdued Inflation and Activity Resilience
China's Central Bank Injects Additional Funds to Bolster Economic Recovery Amidst Lingering Challenges
France Faces Growing Challenges as Unemployment Rate Surges Beyond Expectations
China's Trade Dynamics in October: Surplus Shrinks as Exports Weaken, Import Data Raises Questions
German Industrial Production Continues Downward Spiral, Raising Concerns of Year-End Recession
Rates Rally: Examining the Factors Behind the Surge and What Lies Ahead
French GDP Growth Slows Sharply in Q3 Despite Domestic Demand Rebound: A Detailed Analysis and Future Projections
Why India Leads the Way in Economic Growth Amid Global Slowdown
US Housing Market Faces Challenges Due to Soaring Mortgage Rates
ECB's 25bp Rate Hike Signals End to Hiking Cycle Amid Inflation and Growth Concerns
Inflation in Romania: Analyzing August's Higher-Than-Expected Numbers
US ISM Services PMI Defies Global Trends, Boosting US Dollar Amid Mixed Economic Signals
French Industrial Production Rebounds in July Amid Weak Demand and Gloomy Outlook
Rates Surge: US Service Sector Strengthens Yields
US Service Sector's Resilience: Surprising Strength Fueled by Entertainment Boom and Inflation Concerns
Market Musings: A Week of Subdued Surprises – What Lies Ahead?
Two Scenarios: Implications of Average Hours Worked in the Eurozone
The Overlooked Factor Causing Labor Shortages in the Eurozone: Decreased Average Work Hours
US ISM Reports Indicate GDP Slowdown Despite Strong Construction; Manufacturing Continues to Contract
Turbulent Times Ahead: US Spending Surge and Inflation Trends
Challenges Loom Over Eurozone's Economic Outlook: Inflation, Interest Rates, and Uncertainty Ahead
Assessing the Resilience of the US Economy Amidst Rising Challenges and Recession Expectations
Poland Poised for Interest Rate Cut in September Despite Double-Digit Inflation
Impact of Declining Confidence: Italian Business Sentiment in August
Rates Retreat: Impact of Weaker Data on US Yields and Market Dynamics
Market Insights Roundup: A Glimpse into Economic Indicators and Corporate Performance
Persistent Stagnation: German Economy Confirms Second Quarter Contraction
Canadian Retail Sales Show Weak Gain as Markets Focus on Jackson Hole Symposium
US Treasury Yields Surge: Implications for Global Markets and Economies
EUR/USD: Lack of Volatility and Support Amidst Economic Data
