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FXMAG>Articles>Business>Zloty Holds Firm Despite...
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Czech Retail Sales Stagnate in Q3 but Outlook for Year-End Remains Upbeat

Czech Retail Sales Stagnate in Q3 but Outlook for Year-End Remains Upbeat

Philippines Q3 GDP Slows Sharply as Investment and Consumption Weaken

Philippines Q3 GDP Slows Sharply as Investment and Consumption Weaken

USD Rally Loses Momentum as Global Central Banks Signal Diverging Paths

USD Rally Loses Momentum as Global Central Banks Signal Diverging Paths

German Exports Rebound in September but Structural Headwinds Persist

German Exports Rebound in September but Structural Headwinds Persist

Treasury Volatility and ECB Outlook: Contrasting Economic Signals and Liquidity Dynamics

Treasury Volatility and ECB Outlook: Contrasting Economic Signals and Liquidity Dynamics

Zloty Holds Firm Despite Global Turmoil, Supported by Strong Carry and Solid Growth Outlook

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Some of the best performing currencies in the CEE region have started to hand back some of their gains as markets question whether central banks will have to turn more dovish. That's particularly been the case in Hungary. However, our call is that rate cuts are delayed, and the forint can continue to enjoy carry trade interest. CZK and ZAR should also do well

Zloty Holds Firm Despite Global Turmoil, Supported by Strong Carry and Solid Growth Outlook
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zloty holds firm despite global turmoil supported by strong carry and solid growth outlook grafika numer 1 ✕zloty holds firm despite global turmoil supported by strong carry and solid growth outlook grafika numer 1

  • The EUR/PLN exchange rate is hovering within a narrow range of 4.23-4.29. Despite a lower EUR/USD and political turmoil in France and Japan – along with its economic repercussions – the zloty has remained stable and once again has proven its resilience to global factors.
  • We maintain a neutral outlook for the zloty. A positive carry trade remains the main argument for the zloty’s resistance, along with a cautious approach by the Monetary Policy Council and GDP growth outlook clearly outperforming the CEE region.
  • Downside risks to the zloty are linked to a possible escalation of a Russian hybrid war with NATO countries. Also, the cohabitation between the president and government from different political camps undermines any fiscal consolidation in the medium term.

zloty holds firm despite global turmoil supported by strong carry and solid growth outlook grafika numer 2 ✕zloty holds firm despite global turmoil supported by strong carry and solid growth outlook grafika numer 2

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