yield curve

Euro Rates Approach Highs Amid Disinflation Risks and Dutch Pension-Driven Curve Steepening

Euro rates are near the top of their ranges again. We don't expect the front-end to remain a driver, with now only a 30% chance of an ECB cut priced down the road despite remaining risks around the outlook. Dutch pension reforms appear to help push the 10s30s steeper as dynamics detach from the US curve

US Treasuries Continue to Trade Heavily as Yields Edge Higher

US Treasury yields look like they want to nudge higher when they can. And why not, as corporate earnings are firm, and hard macro data is being kept under shutdown wraps. New lows in euro rate volatility help spreads on European government bonds (EGBs) tighten further. Given the spread tightness, Bunds look increasingly attractive as a risk hedge

Treasuries Hold Steady as Fed Prepares to Fine-Tune Liquidity

The US remains in a steady state along the coupon curve. But there’s a lot going on in the money markets pipes as repo tightness persists. As we head into the Federal Reserve meeting, the big call would be to maintain the MBS roll-off and replace it with buying of T-bills, while broadly ending quantitative tightening

Disinflation Risks Push ECB Toward Easing, Yield Curves Steepen

We don't think markets should dismiss another European Central Bank rate cut as eurozone inflation starts to drift below target. At the same time, the prospect of recovering growth – boosted by the German fiscal situation – should keep the back end anchored higher. We therefore see steeper curves in the near term 

Political Uncertainty, Fed Independence, and the Steeper Yield Curve Ahead

The thing about the Lisa Cook affair is it's laced with legal grey. We make the simple apolitical assumption, from a market’s perspective, that Ms Cook will be replaced. Tough to undo what's been done, and an extrapolation of these circumstances result in a steeper curve from both ends. The front end does not care. The back end cares a lot (or at least should)

Political Risks, Fed Uncertainty, and Market Strains Weigh on Global Sentiment

This week could have started calmly, with investors digesting Friday's policy shift at the Federal Reserve (Fed), consolidating recent gains and repositioning ahead of the all-important Nvidia earnings due Wednesday. But instead, Donald Trump chose to keep markets on edge by announcing the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud.

Markets Brace for "Liberation Day": Diverging Reactions Across Equities, FX, and Commodities

Markets are pricing in risks of tariffs with diverging movements across regions and asset classes. 

Tariffs risks saw US and Asian equities retreat while European equities outperformed. 

However, most G10 currencies outperformed the USD. Commodity- linked currencies like the CAD, AUD and NOK performed best.