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market expectations
Articles related to market expectations
US Treasuries Stay Under Pressure as Powell’s Message Lingers; Limited Room for Gilt Yields to Fall Further
Fed Chair Powell's reticence to cut in December remains a driver of sentiment. Nevertheless, Treasuries are interpreting the various crosswinds as supportive of a rise in yields. We don't think the Bank of England will cut, but markets are not fully convinced. Gilt yields have little room to move lower as the Budget risk premium has already fallen
USD Holds Steady Ahead of Key ADP Data Release
FX markets are struggling to find direction this week. The Fed’s doubts on whether to cut in December naturally increase scrutiny of data: this means both depressed volatility during data silence and some potential exacerbation of USD reaction to any labour indicator (like tomorrow’s ADP). Our call remains that the dollar is close to its peak
Dollar Weakens as Fed Cut Bets Hold; CEE Markets Eye Trump–Putin Talks
US core inflation accelerated to 0.3% MoM in July, but markets don’t think that is enough to prevent a September Fed cut. That paves the way to more USD weakness, although some caution may prevail ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin meeting. The market is adjusting expectations, but the risk still seems asymmetrical for CEE currencies
USD Under Pressure: Will Soft Data Tip the Fed?
FX Daily: Data holds the key to FOMC balance. We expect the dollar to become more sensitive to data in the near term, as markets seek a catalyst to double down on recent dovish Fed speculation. Employment figures may be subject to closer examination, with the rationale that a softer jobs market can convert a few hawks after mild inflation failed to do so. EUR/USD continues to face upside risks
AUD Steady as RBA Signals Caution on Further Rate Cuts Amid Global Uncertainty
The other main event overnight has been the RBA’s latest policy meeting. The RBA decided to leave their policy rate unchanged at 4.10% as expected after delivering the first rate cut in the easing cycle at the previous meeting in February.
EUR/JPY: Rising Global Yields Weigh on the US Dollar Amid BoJ and German Policy Shifts
The sharp move higher in yields outside of US has been an important driver of US dollar weakness at the start of this year. The 10-year JGB yield hit a fresh year to date high overnight of 1.58% and has now risen by around 40 basis points year to date.
Goldman Sachs Outlook on EUR/USD: Trade Tensions, Ceasefire Optimism, and Tariff Risks
While simmering trade tensions have been a key driver of FX markets this year, optimism about a potential ceasefire deal in Ukraine and stronger fiscal support, especially from defense spending, have also raised the prospects of a better outcome for European growth.
Shift in Central Bank Sentiment: Czech National Bank Hints at a 50bp Rate Cut, Impact on CZK Expected
Bank of England's February Meeting: Expectations and Market Impact Analysis
Tepid ECB Holds Rates, Lagarde Eyes Summer Cut, EURUSD Consolidation
Federal Reserve's Stance: Holding Rates Steady Amidst Market Expectations, with a Cautionary Tone on Overly Aggressive Rate Cut Pricings
Treading Cautiously: Markets Await Today's Core PCE Data for Fed Insight
EUR: Lagarde Balances Data Dependency Amidst Rate Cut Speculations
UK PMIs Signal Improved Growth Outlook Amid Stubborn Inflation, Red Sea Disruption Factors; Bank of England Expected to Delay Rate Cuts Until August
BoC's Monetary Policy: Navigating Gradual Dovish Shift Amid Economic Indicators
Anticipating a Softening Stance: Projections for New Zealand's 4Q CPI at 4.6%
Bank of Japan Holds Steady, UK Public Finances in Focus: Market Analysis
Rates Spark: Evaluating the Near-Term Risks and Expectations for Higher Rates
The December CPI Upside Surprise: Why Markets Remain Skeptical About a Fed Rate Cut in March
USDA's WASDE Update: Bearish Outlook as Corn and Soybean Supplies Exceed Expectations
Resilient US Consumer: Analyzing December Retail Sales Data – 17/01
China's Economic Pulse: Analyzing Q4 GDP and December Retail Sales Figures - Insights and Expectations
Assessing the Impact: UK Wages and CPI Figures for December and Their Implications on Monetary Policy
Bitcoin's Future Hangs in the Balance: ETF Approval Deadline Sparks Market Speculation
BoJ Holds Steady, Yen Takes a Dive: Market Disappointment as Bank of Japan Maintains Policy Amid Speculation
Bank of Japan Keeps Rates Steady, Paves the Way for April Hike Amidst Market Disappointment
Surprise Dovish Turn: Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Signals Rate Cuts Ahead
Eurozone, German Service PMI Ease in December, Euro Snaps Four-Day Rally
Tale of Two PMIs: UK Services Accelerate, Manufacturing Declines
Interest Rate Dynamics: Navigating Uncertainty Post Central Bank Decisions
BoJ Policy Announcement: Yen's Fate Hangs in the Balance
FX Daily: Navigating Central Bank Winds in Year-End Markets
Deciphering the Bank of Japan's Policy Shift: Will Negative Rates Bid Farewell?
Australian Dollar Rebounds as Federal Reserve Signals Likely Pause; Focus on Job Growth and Rate Expectations - 14.12.2023
Fed's Surprise: Three Rate Cuts in 2024 Propel Dow to Record Highs
Tightening the Reins: Bank of England Resists Early 2024 Rate Cuts Despite Market Expectations
Tidings of an Early Market Cheer: Federal Reserve Paves the Way, Bank of England and ECB on Deck
UK Wage Growth Eases to 7.3%, Below Expectations, as US Inflation Set to Fall to 3.0%
Yen Rebounds After Two-Day Slide as US Inflation Expected to Drop to 3.0%
Turbulent Markets: Central Banks Grapple with Inflation as China Enters Deflation
Federal Reserve Outlook: Navigating Monetary Policy in the Face of Market Expectations and Economic Signals
ECB December Meeting: Balancing Dovish Expectations with a Cautious Reality Check
Taming Rate Cut Expectations: Bank of England's Stance and Market Dynamics in 2024
rate cuts, European Central Bank, ECB, monetary policy, interest rates, forex, currency exchange, EUR/USD, market expectations, hawkish pushback, Robert Holzman, economic forecasts, central bank, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, forex analysis.
UR: Assessing the Hawkish Pushback Amid Aggressive Rate Cut Expectations
Bank of Canada: Balancing Act on Rates Amid Economic Challenges
GameStop Q3 2024: Overcoming Headwinds and Anticipating Resilience
Navigating Economic Crossroads: US Non-Farm Payrolls and Services PMIs Analysis by Michael Hewson
ECB Rate Cut Speculation Grows as EU Flash CPI Slows: Will Caution Prevail in Monetary Policy?
US Core PCE Deflator: Deciphering Signals for Fed Policy Amidst Slowing Inflation
US Core PCE Deflator: Deciphering Signals for Fed Policy Amidst Slowing Inflation - 27.11.2023
Rates Spark: Feeble Pushback Amid Central Bank Messaging and German Budget Uncertainty
National Bank of Hungary Maintains Course with 75bp Rate Cut in November
CEE Focus: Anticipating Turkey's Rate Hike Amidst Regional Rate Dynamics
GBP: Soft Services Inflation Diminishes BoE December Hike Prospects
Peak Fed: Navigating the Changing Rate Landscape
Grain Prices Under Pressure After Bearish WASDE Report
Czech National Bank (CNB) Maintains Interest Rates, Delays Cutting Cycle Amid Mixed Signals for CZK
FX and Rates Markets: Analyzing Scenarios for the Czech Koruna and CNB's Cutting Cycle
AUD: RBA Maintains Rates as New Governor Upholds Continuity
Market Insights: Weekly Jobless Claims Set the Stage for Tomorrow's US Payrolls Report
EUR Reacts to ECB's Dovish Hike, Now More Influenced by the USD
The Influence of Rising Oil Prices on Fed Rate Expectations and the US Dollar
Japan's Economic Outlook: BoJ Policy and Scenarios
The Illusion of Economic Stability: Navigating Uncertain Waters Beyond the Surface
Balancing Act: ECB's Hawkish Message Amidst Challenging Macroeconomic Conditions
ECB Decision Dilemma: Examining the Hawkish Hike and Its Potential Impact on Rates and FX
Dovish BoE Comments Drive EUR/GBP Rally
Bank of Canada Maintains Status Quo: No Surprises for CAD
Market Musings: A Week of Subdued Surprises – What Lies Ahead?
Rates Spark: Close calls as EUR rates drift higher ahead of ECB Decision and US Market Return
EUR Vulnerable Ahead of Possible ECB Surprise: What to Expect
RBA Expected to Pause as Inflation Moves in the Right Direction
Swiss Retail Sales Decline, Inflation Expected to Dip, US Unemployment Claims Drop
Euro Falls as Eurozone Inflation Data Contradicts Expectations
Turbulent FX Markets: Peso Strength, Renminbi Weakness, and Dollar's Delicate Balance
The ECB's September Meeting: Hawkish Tilt or Dovish Pause?
UK Monetary Policy Outlook: A September Hike Likely, but November Uncertain
National Bank of Hungary's Shift: Moving Away from Autopilot Monetary Policy
AUD Rebounds Despite Lower Inflation: Outlook and Implications
Market Insights Roundup: A Glimpse into Economic Indicators and Corporate Performance
CBT's Tightening Efforts and the Turkish Lira: Analyzing the Path Forward
EUR Resilience Amidst Chinese Concerns
UK Inflation Expected to Slow Sharply in July: Market Analysis and Insights - August 16, 2023
Unpacking the Latest US CPI Data: Impact on Fed Policy and USD Exchange Rates - Insights from Paweł Majtkowski, eToro Market Analyst
CEE Update: Hungary's Inflation Dips Below 20%; Focus on State Budget and Forint's Movement
CZK: Czech National Bank's Last Chance to Signal Hawkishness
USDA Slashes Corn and Soybean Crop Ratings, Improving Weather Conditions Bring Hope
EURUSD Awaits Fed and ECB Decisions: Data Dependency and Dovish Hike Expectations
Agriculture Update: UNICA Reports Higher Cane Crush in Brazil, Cocoa Futures Surge on Supply Concerns
Central Bank Decisions: Fed, ECB, and BoJ - Market Expectations and Currency Volatility
CZK's uncertain path amid deflationary pressures and market expectations
EUR/USD: Evaluating the Stretch of the Rally
Netflix Expects Steady Growth Despite Subscriber Setback: Q2 2023 Earnings
GBP/USD: Hawkish BoE Supports GBP/USD Ascendancy
Global Wheat Balance Continues to Tighten for Another Season
US Soybean Cuts Fall Short of Expectations in USDA's Latest Report
CEE Region: Czech Inflation Drops to Single-Digit Territory
