Global Wheat Balance Continues to Tighten for Another Season

Another season of tightening for the global wheat balance

The US wheat balance is expected to loosen over the course of the 2023/24 season due to higher output, largely as a result of winter wheat. The USDA expects domestic wheat output to increase by 74m bushels to 1,739m bushels. As a result, ending stock estimates for the season have been raised from 562m bushels to 592m bushels. This is above the roughly 565m bushels the market was expecting.

The global wheat balance was more constructive with ending stock estimates for 2023/24 lowered from 270.7mt to 266.5mt, which is also lower than the more than 270mt the market was expecting. If realised, this would be the fourth consecutive year of declines in stocks. The revision lower was driven by expectations of lower output from the EU, Canada and Argentina, whilst demand is also expected to edge higher.

 

Wheat supply/demand balance

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