Russia
No major economic releases or events next week. Industrial output and central bank reserves are the only items on the agenda.
South Africa
The SARB paused its tightening cycle in July while stressing it is not the end – although it likely is as both headline and core inflation are now comfortably within its 3-6% target range – and that future decisions will be driven by the data. With that in mind, next week is looking a little quiet with the leading indicator on Tuesday and PPI figures on Thursday.
Turkey
Next week offers mostly tier three data, with the only release of note being the quarterly inflation report. Against the backdrop of a plunging currency and a central bank that finally accepts it needs to raise rates but refuses to do so at the pace required, it should make for interesting reading. Though it likely won’t do anything to restore trust and confidence in policymakers to fix the problems.
Switzerland
Next week consists of just a couple of surveys, the KOF indicator and investor sentiment.
China
No key economic data but keep a lookout for a possible announcement of more detailed fiscal stimulus measures in terms of monetary amount, and scope of coverage. Last week, China’s top policymakers announced a slew of broad-based plans to boost consumer spending and support for private companies in share listings, bond sales, and overseas expansion but lacking in detail.
India
No major key data releases.
Australia
Several pieces of data to digest. Firstly, flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs for July out on Monday. Forecasts are expecting a further deterioration for both; a decline in Manufacturing PMI to 47.6 from 48.2 in June, and Services PMI slip to contraction mode at 49.2 from June’s reading of 50.3.
Secondly, the all-important Q2 inflation data out on Wednesday where the consensus is expecting a slow down to 6.2% year-on-year from 7% y/y printed in Q1. Even the expectation for the less volatile RBA-trimmed median CPI released on the same day is being lowered to 6% y/y for Q2 from 6.6% y/y in Q1. These latest inflationary data will play a significant contribution in shaping the expectations of the monetary policy decision outlook for the next RBA meeting on 1 August. Based on the RBA Rate Indicator as of 21st July, the ASX 30-day interbank cash rate futures for the August 2023 contract have priced in a 48% probability of a 25-bps hike to bring the cash rate to 4.35%, that’s an increase in odds from 29% seen in a week ago.
Lastly, retail sales for June out on Friday where the forecast is expected a decline to -0.3% month-on-month from 0.7% m/m in May.
New Zealand
One key data to note will be the Balance of Trade for June out on Monday where May’s trade surplus is being forecasted to reverse to a deficit of -NZ$1 billion from NZ$ 46 million.
Japan
On Monday, we will have the flash Manufacturing and Services PMI for July. The growth in the manufacturing sector is expected to improve slightly to 50 from 49.8 in June while growth in the services sector is forecasted to slip slightly to 53.4 from 54.0 in June.
Next up, on Friday, the leading Tokyo CPI data for July will be released. Consensus for the core Tokyo inflation (excluding fresh food) is expected to slip to 2.9% year-on-year from 3.2% y/y in June, and Core-Core Tokyo inflation (excluding fresh food & energy) is forecasted to dip slightly to 2.2% y/y from 2.3% y/y in June.
Also, BoJ’s monetary policy decision and latest economic quarterly outlook will be out on Friday as well. The consensus is an upgrade of the FY 2023 inflation outlook to be above 2% and a Reuters report out on Friday, 21 July stated that it is likely no change to the current band limits of the “Yield Curve Control” (YCC) programme on the 10-year JGB yield based on five sources familiar with the BoJ’s thinking. Prior to this Reuters news flow, there is a certain degree of speculation in the market place the BoJ may increase the upper limit of the YCC to 0.75% from 0.50%.
Singapore
Two key data to watch out for. Firstly, inflation for June is out on Monday. Consensus is expecting core inflation to cool down to 4.2% year-on-year from 4.7% y/y in May. If it turns out as expected, it will be the second consecutive month of a slowdown in inflationary pressure.
Next up, industrial production for June out on Wednesday, another month of negative growth is expected at -7.5% year-on-year but at a slower magnitude than -10.8% y/y recorded in May.
