The Dow and the S&P 500 ended nearly unchanged, recovering from earlier lows following President Donald Trump’s comments on tariff reprieve. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose but traded in a tight range on tariff and economic concerns. The dollar gained putting pressure on gold prices. Oil edged up as fresh Iran sanctions and latest output plan from the OPEC+ raised supply concerns.
On the U.S. economic front, S&P Global's flash Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, is due. The survey's flash manufacturing PMI will probably fall to a reading of 51.8 for March from 52.7 in February, while the flash services PMI is also likely to fall to 50.8 from 51 last month.
Mexico’s half-month inflation data for March is on the radar. Inflation for the first half of March likely rose to 0.22% on a monthly basis and to 3.76% on an annual basis. Core inflation likely slowed to 3.56% on a year-on-year basis from 3.63%.
Maggie Switek, Senior Director of Research, Milken Institute, discusses post-pandemic capital shifts and why Latin America leads other emerging economies in FDI. (1200 ET/1600 GMT).
Amid mounting fears over tariffs on imports and deep cuts in federal government spending, the latest round of data from the U.S. will provide crucial clues on the economy and consumer sentiment. In particular, the focus will be on Friday's inflation data and consumer spending figures. On a monthly basis, the PCE price index is expected to remain flat at 0.3% in February. In the 12 months through February, the index is likely to remain at 2.5%. The Commerce Department is scheduled to show consumer spending data for February likely rose 0.5%, after posting a fall of 0.2% in January. The University of Michigan's final Consumer Sentiment Index is also scheduled for the day.
On Tuesday, a Conference Board survey is expected to show March’s consumer confidence index likely dipped to 94, after previously deteriorating at its sharpest pace in 3-1/2 years in February. Separately, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau’s new home sales data is forecast to have edged up to 680,000 units from January’s 657,000 units.
Additionally, the department will release its U.S. durable goods data on Wednesday, which is expected to have contracted 1% in February, after rising 3.2% in the prior month. Excluding transport, durable goods likely ticked up 0.2% last month. On Thursday, the Commerce Department will show that the economy likely grew at a pace of 2.3% in the fourth quarter, aligning with the second estimate. Weekly jobless claims numbers for the week ended March 22 are on the cards for Thursday, which is projected to show a rise in initial jobless claims to 225,000 from 223,000.
Several Fed speakers are expected to speak next week. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem is scheduled to participate in a moderated conversation on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Paducah Area Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams will give opening remarks before the 2025 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference.
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will host "Fed Listens" conversation on labor market conditions, inflation, and how the Fed communicates and transmits monetary policy before the Detroit Lakes Regional Chamber of Commerce Economic Summit.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin is set to deliver the H. Parker Willis Lecture in Political Economy at Washington and Lee University on Thursday. On Friday, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic is expected to moderate a panel before the Third Annual Georgia Tech-Atlanta Fed Household Finance Conference.
GameStop is expected to report a decline in its fourth-quarter revenue and profit from year-ago period on Tuesday, as its main business of sales of videogames hardware collectibles is experiencing a slower turnaround. Investors will be looking for any updates on its cost-saving measures, including an update on its plan to sell its French and Canadian operations, along with more measures to reduce cost.
Dollar Tree is expected to post a drop in fourth-quarter sales on Wednesday, as lower income consumers pull back spending on non-essential items due to higher inflation and economic uncertainty. Investors will watch out for comments on Dollar Tree's forecasts, as well as on consumer sentiment expectations for the year.
