The Stoxx Europe 600 index is down 12% since the close on 2 April, prior to the announcements of US tariffs and subsequent retaliatory measures. We update our estimated net income sensitivity to market declines, as originally set out in our 2025 outlook: Quid games (published 6 January 2025).
We overlay share price performance since the announcement of tariffs in order to highlight anomalous share price movements. Jupiter, aberdeen, Schroders and Quilter stand out as outperforming the implied consensus net income downgrades (all are Neutral- rated). Within this framework, Vontobel (Sell-rated) stands out as outperforming relative to Julius Baer (Neutral-rated) and EFG International (Buy-rated). The investment platform share prices have generally moved in line with our estimates earnings headwind, with Fineco's underperformance likely explained by greater interest rate sensitivity. We expect consensus estimates for Avanza (Buy-rated) to be supported by favourable deposit trends.
We update AIB’s and BIRG’s NII estimates for the recent move in the forward curve, now pricing an average Euribor 3M of c.2.2/1.8/2.1% for the years 2025/26/27E (down c.-10/-20/-15bps compared to a week ago). As a result of the move in rates, our NII estimates 2025/26/27E decrease by c.-1/-3/-1%, and are now c.-1/-3/+1% compared to VA consensus. We don’t include the impact from potential weaker macro in LLP for the time being, as we await further developments (eg on pharma tariffs, which are relevant for the Irish economy). However, inside, we analyse in detail banks’ IFRS9 macro downside scenarios. On our estimates, AIB and BIRG trade at c.8/7x P/E 2026/27E and c.1x P/TBV for a c.13% RoTE. We remain Buyers of both AIB (new TP €7.0) and BIRG (new TP €12.0), however we note any developments on pharma tariffs remain a key risk for Irish macro (link). We prefer AIB.
Q1 will likely be a weak start for FY25E for ABInBev, with technical headwinds from the loss of a selling day and the later Easter adding to continued weakness in the US and China, alongside muted underlying volume momentum elsewhere. As such, we forecast group Q1 organic volumes down c.4% (consensus c.-2%). Although we expect management to reiterate FY25E organic EBITDA growth guidance of +4-8% (Citi +5.7%, consensus +6.1%), delivery is likely to be H2-weighted as higher investments in the US leave our Q1 organic EBITDA growth forecast at +0.9%. With Q1 weakness well-known, leverage now below 3.0x and optionality for a scaling of the $2bn share buyback later in the year, alongside a relatively limited exposure to first-order impacts from Trump administration
We estimate 1Q'25e revenue CHF2,685mn (+1.4% y/y, +1.5% CC). EMEA is expected to see slight growth, underpinned by continued healthy demand in Middle East and Africa as well as gradual improvement in Europe. Americas demand should also stay in positive territory for the quarter, but we see the growth outlook negatively impacted by the US tariff turmoil (not so much by the actual tariff but more due to the recession risk). APAC likely saw some improvement in the quarter, with the still difficult Chinese market offset by strong growth in India and South-East Asia. The group guidance expected North America to be the largest growth contributor this year, however recent US turmoil likely suppress the growth outlook. We trimmed the group topline growth in 2025e from 3.9% to 2.8% (in local currencies), and cut TP from CHF250 to CHF200. Maintain Neutral.
