Japan's stimulus package targets inflation stabilisation, strengthening defence and diplomacy, and sustainable growth. It should spur short-term growth and reduce inflation, but may put pressure on JGBs. The BoJ's policy normalisation will likely continue, though it faces challenges and may proceed at a slower pace
As negotiations to reach a final Omnibus I proposal have started, we analyse the impact each proposal would have on European banks. Despite the variations, all three proposals suggest a single path towards major scope reductions. This would be a positive for banks no longer required to report on ESG but complicate disclosures for those still in scope
UK inflation has peaked, but the latest data is a tad hawkish for the Bank of England. Food inflation was strong, which is red meat for the hawks. Services inflation rose, once volatile items are stripped out. However, we still expect the Bank to cut rates in December
Euro rates are near the top of their ranges again. We don't expect the front-end to remain a driver, with now only a 30% chance of an ECB cut priced down the road despite remaining risks around the outlook. Dutch pension reforms appear to help push the 10s30s steeper as dynamics detach from the US curve
Bank Indonesia and the People’s Bank of China are both expected to maintain current interest rate levels. Key releases include Japan's GDP, trade figures, and inflation, Taiwan's export orders and Singapore's GDP
Romanian Inflation eased marginally in October to 9.8% versus September’s 9.9%. Declines in some food prices provided relief, but services inflation remains tricky. Wage growth slowed to just 4.1% in September, acting as a clear drag on demand. We maintain our year-end inflation forecasts at 9.6% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026
The UN climate conference in Belém has ignited a fierce debate and highlighted serious climate policy hurdles, before it has even begun. Despite these challenges, we see COP30 as a pivotal opportunity for meaningful boardroom conversations on carbon markets, sustainable finance and renewables
Headline inflation in the Netherlands surged well above expectations in September. Although a swift return to a more normal pace wasn’t anticipated, today’s data illustrates just how persistent price pressures can be
The Dutch central bank may start sending out more approvals for the transitioning of Dutch pension funds from a defined benefit to a defined contribution model this week. But with the 1 January transition date fast approaching, we may also start hearing about more delays. Meanwhile, a US government shutdown could weigh on economic sentiment
Economic growth in Poland remains robust (3.4% year-on-year in 2Q) and is more buoyant than in other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Industry is facing the same headwinds as CEE peers, and construction is stagnant while services are solidly expanding. Consumption growth should allow for near-4% YoY growth in the second half and 3.5% GDP in 2025
USD/CAD advances in the US session, trading above the 100-day MA as the potential for further gains grows. There are of course headwinds for the pair which could scupper a move higher in the coming days.
A sharp plunge in industrial production data suggests that the initial signs of an inventory cycle turn were mainly driven by US frontloading rather than a genuine cyclical recovery. Industrial weakness looks set to continue
Equity markets rebounded after Friday’s falls as investors looked to ‘buy the dip.’ Tech stocks led the market higher. The rally in globally treasuries was extended which also supported stock valuations.
The euro briefly sank below the 1.14 level on the dollar last week (before rebounding on Friday), as markets continued to cast a critical eye on the details of the US-EU trade deal.
China's official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index slowed to a three-month low of 49.3, as new orders swung back into contraction
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) held its policy steady, but the tone was notably less dovish. While MAS made no changes to its GDP growth or inflation forecasts for 2025, the qualitative assessment indicated a more optimistic outlook than before. Although easing at the October policy meeting cannot be entirely ruled out, we think it's unlikely
Housing transactions are very weak given a general lack of affordability, but with supply now on the rise, there is concern about what the implications will be for home prices and household wealth in coming quarters. Residential construction may also become more of a headwind for broader economic growth
Shifts in demographics and labour force participation were key drivers behind the decline in employment in the second quarter of 2025. With labour demand softening alongside supply, a near-term recovery seems unlikel
The future of energy hinges on integrating sustainable molecules with electrification. We explore how sustainable biogas, heat, hydrogen, and hybrid solutions can pave the way to green, reliable and affordable energy systems
Markets may become more nervous with the 1 August tariff deadlines, and low summer liquidity could amplify rate moves. Fiscal concerns in many large economies add to the volatility from the back end of the curve. Challenges to the Fed's independence are also not helping US rates
