Combine rebounding investment with continued strength in private spending and you have a recipe for stronger economic growth. October's set of data suggests that GDP growth in the fourth quarter is likely to beat the 3.7% year-on-year rate posted in the third. At the same time, inflation is declining, which paves the way for another rate cut in December
Buoyant economic growth and signs of recovering investment are paired with slowing wage dynamics, easing upside risks to the current disinflation trend. With CPI inflation approaching the National Bank of Poland's target, the central bank may continue with policy easing. We expect another 25bp rate cut in December
With dropping expectations and an only somewhat improving current assessment, the November Ifo index suggests that the German economy remains deeply stuck in stagnation at year-end
Oil prices are under renewed pressure amid ongoing peace talks to end the war in Ukraine
It could have been a lot worse for EUR/USD this week. A set of FOMC minutes that poured cold water on a December rate cut and a strong headline rise in the US jobs report could have seen 1.1500 taken out again. But instead, investors seemed to have just delayed rather than abandoned pricing for Fed easing. And Europe may still being showing some signs of life
Euro rates are more focused on the improving macro story than on AI-driven equity jitters. This also means that Bunds may not prove an effective hedge against an equity sell-off
The Bank of Korea is expected to hold the rates steady. Meanwhile, data highlights include Chinese industrial profits, Tokyo inflation, Korean and Taiwanese industrial production and Indian GDP
US jobs growth was stronger than expected in September, but unemployment also rose amid workers returning to the labour market and seeking jobs. Given the Fed's recent hawkish shift and the lack of official data scheduled before the 10 December FOMC meeting, it is understandable that the market thinks the next move won't come until early 2026
Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 4.75% amid inflation pressures and rupiah weakness, but we expect a cut in December to support growth. Risks remain skewed toward delays if currency pressures persist or the Fed postpones easinga
UK inflation has peaked, but the latest data is a tad hawkish for the Bank of England. Food inflation was strong, which is red meat for the hawks. Services inflation rose, once volatile items are stripped out. However, we still expect the Bank to cut rates in December
Global markets are trading in a slightly nervous fashion as they brace themselves for a potential correction in US tech stocks. So far, the correction has been modest compared to the 25% fall in bitcoin, but events over the next 24 hours will have a say in whether moves extend. We'll have FOMC minutes, Nvidia earnings and the September jobs reporta
Equities jitters have helped to steepen curves, though all within prior ranges and a 10y UST yield above 4%. As 10y Bunds richen versus swaps, the swap rate remains near the upper end of its range while the back end is sensitive to Dutch pension fund news. Meanwhile, latest TIC data show decent buying of US assets, including foreign demand for Treasuries
Wage growth was slightly higher than expected in September. This growth in purchasing power could overcome the Hungarian economy’s Achilles heel: a lack of confidence. In the coming months, inflation will fall and wages will grow strongly
This more than compensates for August’s fall, confirming that summer data has to be interpreted with a pinch of salt. Italy's industrial stagnation is not over yet, but the picture might improve marginally over the fourth quarter
EUR/USD has held onto its gains this week – though that largely looks a function of the slightly softer dollar. Yesterday's release of the German ZEW expectations index for November was not particularly encouraging. However, the aggregate ZEW figure for the eurozone as a whole ticked up, questioning whether Germany is increasingly becoming an outlier.
Treasuries are treading water, and really should have performed better on a risk-off Tuesday. But the 10yr seems content at above 4% for now. The 2yr has more open road to trek back down to 3.5%. Wednesday’s refunding announcement should be a box-ticking exercise. The plumbing of the money markets is where all the drama is - keep an eye on it
Affordability in the German real estate market remains strained. However, the recent surge in rents and a low homeownership ratio should still support the market
The Riksbank and the ECB are both in a 'good place'. However, the risks that rates will be lowered again in Sweden are even lower than in the eurozone, as the growth outlook continues to improve and the Riksbank already took rates below 2% in September. We don't expect any new guidance at this meeting, and the krona's outlook remains good into 2026
Energy price developments have resulted in a tick down in headline inflation, while core inflation remains at 2.4%. Overall, the inflation environment seems to remain very stable around the ECB's target for the moment
China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index saw a broad-based decline in October, while the non-manufacturing PMI managed to edge back into expansionary territory. Industrial activity has held up well despite soft PMI data year-to-date. Even so, this steeper downturn may raise some concerns
Italy's October batch of confidence data marks an improvement in all monitored sectors but services. This is good news for Italian growth perspectives in the fourth quarter
Labour market data remains at an acceptable level for now, but the outlook is uncertain. As spooky season begins, companies face a haunting dilemma: raise prices further or begin layoffs?
Japanese exports recovered mostly in line with market expectations. We cautiously expect US-bound exports to stabilise after the recent trade deal. Stronger-than-expected imports indicate continued investment in AI and semiconductors, supporting growth in the fourth quarter
In a landmark move for the proprietary trading industry in Poland, BrightFunded is proud to announce the opening of a new office in Warsaw, Poland, in October 2025. This expansion is a direct result of BrightFunded’s dedication to the growing and vibrant trading community in the region. The new office will serve as a hub for local traders, providing specialized resources, dedicated support, and a place for the prop trading community to connect.
Depriving investors of US macro data, the government shutdown has brought a reprieve to the dollar. Bears have become discouraged by the lack of soft jobs evidence, and many have thrown in the towel.
Henry Hub natural gas extended declines in the early trading session today following higher US natural gas inventory injections over the last week. Total gas stockpiles continue to float above the five-year average, weighing on sentiment
The just-released minutes of the ECB’s September meeting show a unanimous decision to keep interest rates on hold, viewing this approach as the most appropriate response to ongoing elevated uncertainty
After three sessions of correction in US equities, the Dow Jones is attempting a comeback.
The move comes in the shadow of what had been a heavily risk-on pre-FOMC environment, where expectations for rate cuts kept fueling a wave of optimism across markets.
China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was generally encouraging, rebounding to a six-month high in September. Yet, the non-manufacturing PMI disappointed by falling back to neutral levels
Upside surprises in the final US GDP numbers and jobless claims make it difficult for markets to agree on upcoming Fed cuts. A benign PCE reading on Friday won't change that, but payrolls data next week should be more pivotal. Euro rate markets are keen to follow the bearish mood as a stronger dollar reduces disinflationary
The recovery in Germany’s housing market has continued, albeit at a slower pace. A combination of somewhat rising mortgage rates, increasing house prices, and slowing wage growth has weighed on affordability and dampened demand
Federal Reserve (Fed) doves and risk-taking investors didn't necessarily welcome Jerome Powell's cautious tone in his speech yesterday, as the Fed Chair avoided committing to a rate cut at next month's meeting. He repeated that the risks to the labour market are tilted to the downside, while inflation risks remain to the upside – a mixed picture that requires careful policy adjustment.
Plenty of Fed speakers this week will clarify the FOMC’s policy views after Chair Powell’s cautious remarks last week. With the Dot Plot signalling two more cuts this year, we don’t expect much support for the dollar, which is looking moderately expensive in the short-term. PMIs across developed countries and the US PCE are the other highlights this week
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Another day, another record high for the S&P 500 on optimism that:
Wage growth came in as expected in July. It seems likely that it will remain stable at this level in the near future. However, households still prefer to save rather than spend due to weak consumer confidence
The Polish Statistical Office has revised August’s year-on-year CPI inflation upward to 2.9%, from the initial flash estimate of 2.8%. However, we estimate that core inflation eased to 3.1% YoY, maintaining its downward trajectory. We expect policymakers to deliver one more 25bp rate cut this year, in November
Falling unemployment suggests that the eurozone economy remains resilient in the face of global uncertainty. Modest economic growth seems realistic for the coming quarters, as the strong labour market should aid some domestic recovery
Oil prices settled lower on Friday, and remain under pressure in early morning trading today, despite France and Germany pushing for secondary sanctions on Russian energy buyers
As reported by Jiji Press on 27 August, the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election management committee indicated that day that names will be taken and disclosed when it asks lawmakers and prefectural chapter representatives for their preferences on truncating Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's term to hold a new internal leadership election.
Nvidia revealed its Q2 results yesterday after the closing bell and the numbers were, again, very impressive. The company made $46.7bn in revenue last quarter, broadly in line with expectations – and that without selling any H20 chips to China due to export restrictions. The profit margin climbed back above the 70% mark, and the company guided for $54bn in revenue this quarter – still excluding China, where the outlook remains complicated.
The US Dollar has been in a weird trading zone since the contradicting NFP report from the beginning of the month (forcing a dovish hand) and the strong PPI report that has shown the appearance of tariff effects (forcing a hawkish hand).
S&P 500 with Nasdaq almost retested Wednesday‘s lows – unlike Russell 2000, which refused to correct meaningfully Friday premarket. That was but one of the signs of what to expect – and all clients were ready as to what I expected to unfold, and what was the game plan.
Retail sales in July rose by 4.8%YoY in Poland, rebounding from June’s weaker 2.2% figure. The June dip was a one-off weakness and most likely reflected a temporary shift in consumer spending from goods to services, driven by increased travel and hospitality outlays during the Corpus Christi long weekend
In August, France’s business climate index remained stuck at 96 for the third consecutive month. While stable, it continues to hover below its long-term average, a sign that the economy is holding its breath rather than gaining momentum
The Bank of Korea is expected to leave rates unchanged, while Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is seen easing. Other highlights include Tokyo inflation, India’s second-quarter GDP and China’s industrial profits
Global stocks took a break after a record run, as a big drop in major tech companies pulled markets down. Futures suggest more losses ahead.
This is a follow-up analysis and update of our prior report, “Dow Jones Technical: Minor pull-back found support with bullish elements sighted in Caterpillar”, published on 4 August 2025.
The US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy for Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) has kicked off the anticipated bullish impulsive upswing from the 1 August 2025 minor swing low of 43,335.
The industry's annual price drop deepened in July, marking six consecutive months of negative price trends. Weak demand from key trading partners continues to weigh on prices for capital and intermediate goods, while consumer goods prices are still rising. Strong price activity in food production will further drive up the CPI
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 13.
Investors spent Wednesday betting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would not only cut rates by 25bp in September but could even deliver a jumbo rate cut, after CPI data released the day before came in softer than analysts expected. Fed doves now see a huge opportunity for the central bank to focus on the slowing jobs market rather than tariff-led inflation risks that have yet to materialise.
Yesterday, US inflation data was mixed, but the market reaction was not. Core inflation in the US posted its strongest gains this year, and the yearly figure accelerated more than expected to 3.1% in July.
Inflation in Romania rose sharply in July, reaching 7.8% - well above our forecast of 6.4%. The entire deviation stems from the energy sector, particularly electricity prices, which spiked by almost 62% versus the previous month. As a result, we have revised our year-end inflation estimate upward to 9.3%
Industrial production continued to expand in June, although new orders fell short of expectations, particularly given the decline in foreign orders. Meanwhile, the construction upturn is likely to continue, driving the Czech recovery and bolstering household budgets. Wage growth picked up in both manufacturing and construction
The week kicked off on a positive note as investors rushed to buy the dips from last week's correction. While the European indices remain under the pressure of tariffs, there are now two distinct camps regarding whether the major US indices should return to fresh all-time highs or whether a further correction is in order.
In our latest update, we reassess our Hungarian economic and market forecasts at a time when we are torn between optimism for better days ahead, the reality of the past three years, and the present, which is characterised by low confidence that is still declining. This time, pessimism has won
In the world of online trading, brokers often compete for attention through bold promises, celebrity endorsements, and campaigns that resemble tech startups more than financial services. But behind the noise, a quieter shift is underway - one that resonates with traders who care less about hype and more about execution.
The press conference following the European Central Bank's decision to keep rates on hold confirmed the current wait-and-see stance. The bar for further rate cuts looks high but we still wouldn't rule out yet another cut in September
Consumer confidence gained in July, surpassing market expectations with the strongest reading since September 2021. Business confidence hovers just below its long-term average, though we expect the mood in industry to improve over the coming months. Robust recovery implies the need for a tighter monetary policy setup in the future
It has been the second day where North Americans see no particular market-moving data after last week's key releases, but this hasn't stopped the session from being volatile.
South Korea’s consumer sentiment index improved for the fourth straight month. It also suggests a moderation of housing prices, which should offer relief to the government and the Bank of Korea
Expected softness in GDP growth in the second half of the year, ongoing tariff uncertainties, and currency overvaluation support the case for MAS easing, though the decision remains finely balanced
Next week we have the European Central Bank meeting, although no rate cut is anticipated. Markets are still split about when the next cut will take place, so the ECB will likely give more guidance in due time. More important for euro rates may be the PMI numbers. A continuation of upside economic data surprises opens the door to higher longer-dated rates
Industrial producer prices extended the series of declines by another month in June, coming in below expectations. That said, consumer goods prices in the industrial segment accelerated, while animal production pricing in agriculture remained robust
Having gapped 0.3% lower in Asia on news of a potential 30% US tariff on EU imports, EUR/USD is now barely 20 pips down on Friday's close. These kinds of threats seem typical as President Trump tries to get new deals over the line. We expect a better deal for Europe than this, but it could be noisy ahead of 1 August. Elsewhere, look out for new sanctions on Russia
Recent Philippine data indicates that external trade made a stronger contribution to GDP in 2Q. However, the cautious pace of private investment may remain a drag on overall performance unless government spending accelerates. We maintain our forecast for two additional 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end, bringing the policy rate to 4.75%
A stronger-than-expected June jobs report indicates no Federal Reserve rate cut before September despite the President’s demands. Nonetheless, households are becoming more pessimistic on employment prospects with the risk of layoffs rising in the second half of the year
US manufacturing continues to struggle, amidst signs of jobs resilience. The ISM manufacturing index remains in contraction territory, but the job vacancy statistics are holding up fairly well and inflation pressures remain elevated. Fed Chair Powell, speaking in Portugal, continues to suggest the committee remains in wait-and-see mode, implying little prospect of a July rate cut
The Czech economy expanded by a solid 2.4% annually at the beginning of the year. The real GDP revision supports our view that households remain on a spending spree, while firms remain reluctant to unleash investment and unlock future growth potential. Resilient spending will likely prevent any further monetary policy easing
Life insurance companies (lifers) net sold JPY216bn ($1.4bn) of foreign bonds inFebruary, marking net selling of foreign bonds for four consecutive months (Fig. 6 ), but the size remains smaller than in 2022, when they markedly decreased their exposure to foreign bonds.
Chinese policymakers are expected to maintain last year's growth target to signal confidence in growth stabilisation, and we expect a greater focus on boosting domestic demand this year