Italy's October inflation numbers show a marked deceleration. This is very much an energy and fresh food story, against stable core inflation. As we don’t expect an imminent change to the pattern, we're trimming our forecast for average 2025 headline inflation to 1.6%
The just-released minutes of the ECB’s September meeting show a unanimous decision to keep interest rates on hold, viewing this approach as the most appropriate response to ongoing elevated uncertainty
Eurozone retail sales declined by 0.1% in August compared to July. This sales trend has been roughly flat since April. The worried eurozone consumer is seemingly shying away from the shopping street despite improvements in purchasing power across the bloc
Unemployment remains near all-time lows as the economy maintains a slow pace of growth amid significant uncertainty. So, despite a small uptick in the unemployment rate, the labour market mainly shows resilience
As the USD shed some post-Fed gains at the start of this week, the Canadian dollar again stood out as an underperformer. The worsening jobs market, trade uncertainty and possibility of more Bank of Canada rate cuts should keep weighing on CAD against the rest of G10, in our view. Today is PMI day, with central bank speakers (including Powell) still in focus
The eurozone's trade balance edged up slightly in July, driven mainly by a drop in imports, while exports also declined modestly. Excluding the energy crisis period, this marks one of the smallest trade surpluses in the past decade
An uptick in German inflation suggests that the risk of significant inflation undershooting is still more than overdone. At the same time, the increase weakens the case for an ECB rate cut at the September meeting
The just-released minutes of the ECB’s July meeting show that the central bank entered the summer break with a strong feeling that the job was done and that the bar had been set high for another rate cut. Still, this wait-and-see stance had at least a touch of an easing bias
Eurozone economic data for the first half of the year has been distorted by US tariffs.
A full reversal of previous US front-loading effects has pushed the German economy back into recessionary territory, and it looks increasingly unlikely that any substantial recovery will materialise before 2026
Poland’s external current account surplus in June was a positive surprise, as it was also driven by a positive balance in merchandise trade. One data reading does not necessarily signal a new trend – but it may suggest a change in underlying macro developments, especially softer domestic demanda
