OPEC+ To Reduce Production By 2 Million Barrels Per Day, Gold Futures Up 3% This Week, Cotton Futures
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Summary:
- Brent Crude Oil expected to rise by 11% this week.
- Gold prices could come under pressure thanks to US Non-farm payroll data.
- Investors considered the likelihood of more supply and less demand of cotton.
Brent Crude Oil expected to rise by 11% this week
As OPEC+ agreed to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day, or about 2% of the world's supply, starting in November, the price of Brent crude futures held above $94 per barrel on Friday and was expected to rise by about 11% this week. This decision threatens to further tighten supply ahead of the winter season. Although Saudi Arabia's oil minister said the actual reduction will likely be closer to 1 to 1.1 million barrels because several members are already pumping below targets, that would still represent the largest output decrease since the outbreak began. On Thursday, US President Joe Biden expressed disappointment with the OPEC+ decision and stated that the US was looking for measures to prevent prices from rising. Following the OPEC+ decision, Goldman Sachs considerably increased its oil price projection, predicting that Brent prices will reach $104 per barrel this year and $110 per barrel in 2023. Russia once more issued a warning this week that it won't sell oil to nations who back the US-led effort to set a price restriction on Russian oil, adding to supply fears.
Brent Crude Oil Futures Price Chart
Gold prices risen by 3% this week
In the lead-up to the monthly US jobs data that could provide new insights on the Federal Reserve's rate hike path, caution predominated in the market, and gold prices remained muted around $1,710 an ounce on Friday. They have been trading in a range for the past three sessions. The nonfarm payrolls report, which is due later on Friday, is anticipated to indicate that the US economy generated 250,000 jobs in September. If the number is higher than anticipated, rate hike bets will increase and gold prices would be further pressured. The metal has fluctuated throughout the week as opinions on US monetary policy have changed; initially, weak US data drove bullion higher on expectations for a slower pace of tightening, but by the end of the week, pressure from strong US data and hawkish comments from US policymakers had put the metal under pressure. Gold prices, however, have increased by about 3% so far this week and were on track to post their largest weekly gains since March.
Gold Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart
Cotton supply expected to increase
Trading in cotton futures was below 90 USd/Lbs, a level not seen since July 2021, as investors considered the likelihood of more supply and less demand as a result of accelerated rate hikes and a deteriorating economy. Regarding the supply, the USDA's most recent report showed that the crop of US cotton increased from 12.48 million acres in August to 13.79 million acres in September, or over 19% more than the 11.22 million acres planted in 2021. 375 lakh bales are anticipated to be produced in India, another major producer, during the season 2022–23, assuming that the weather is cooperative through October. Crops are still in danger because of unfavorable weather and pest infestations in the main growing regions.
Cotton Dec ‘22 Futures Price Chart
Sources: finance.yahoo.com, tradingeconomics.com
