Poland’s Strong Consumption and Investment Point to Robust Growth with Mild Inflation Outlook
Ukraine Peace Deal Hopes Weigh on EUR Inflation Swaps as Real Rates Hit New Highs
Germany’s Economy: Three Years of Stagnation With Only Limited Signs of Recovery
Commodities Move on Geopolitics and Weather as Oil Rises, Gas Falls, and Nickel Faces Supply Risks
USD Overvaluation Persists as Geopolitics Dominate and JPY Faces Intervention Risks
Oil prices are bouncing back again today, continuing their better start to the week. The apparent success of China’s transition from zero-Covid to living with it owes a lot to the rebound we’re seeing as a strong recovery will naturally drive much higher demand and competition.
That said, markets have been basically range-bound since early December – albeit in a wide range – and the latest recovery simply takes the price back into the middle of that range. The temporary suspension at the Ceyhan terminal following the earthquake in the region may have also lifted prices a little on Monday but with that likely to be lifted soon after no damage was discovered, it’s unlikely to have been a significant factor in the price moves.
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The gold sell-off appears to have stalled around $1,860, where it has seen some support over the last couple of sessions. This was a notable level on the way up as well last month but I suspect it may not represent the end of the correction, given how considerable the rally was from the start of November until last week. We could see gold pare some losses, at which point $1,900 would obviously be interesting, being such a significant area of support in recent weeks. A move lower could draw interest to $1,820-$1,830 which stands out as a big initial test.
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