interest rate cuts

UK Wage Growth Slows Sharply, Paving the Way for Rate Cuts

Wage growth is slowing quickly, at a time when the wider jobs market keeps cooling. The UK is becoming less of an outlier on inflation, and we expect a rate cut on Thursday and two further moves next year

USD Steady Amid Market Nervousness: ADP Data to Set the Tone

The risk mood has darkened a little this week, with some sizeable corrections emerging in some equity markets. There has not been one catalyst per se, but lofty valuations must be leading to some profit-taking in uncertain conditions. For today, it's all about the US ADP jobs release and what it means for the December Fed meeting. Expect FX to stay defensive

Romania’s Inflation Holds Below Expectations as Food Prices Ease and Growth Risks Mount

Price pressures remained at a constant 9.9% in September, with seasonal food items offering mild relief. Services inflation continues to show resilience, and wage growth dipping below 5.0% adds further drag on demand. Our year-end projections remain 9.6% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026

Volatility Collapse Boosts Carry Trades as ECB Bias Remains Toward Easing

Seemingly defying a backdrop of high uncertainty even by the ECB’s own accounts, volatility in markets continues to decline. On the surface, it may look like complacency. But a perceived limited upside in rates, and a potentially bigger downside if they were to actually start falling, also gives spreads their backing

Commodities Update: Oil Rises on OPEC’s Cautious Output Hike, Gold Hits Record High, Coffee Extends Rally

The oil market opened higher in the early trading session today following a modest output hike from OPEC+ for November 2025. Meanwhile, gold continued its rally to new record highs amid the prolonged US shutdown

US Jobs Market Cooling: Slower Wage Growth and Consumer Caution Signal Fed Rate Cuts

Last week's US data was in general good, but today's sentiment and labour data remind us that not everyone is feeling so positive. This is a constraint on US growth prospects and suggests the Fed will retain an easing bias through the rest of the year

Global Markets Digest: Fed Dovish Tilt, PMI Divergence, and Commodity Momentum

Federal Reserve (Fed) doves and risk-taking investors didn't necessarily welcome Jerome Powell's cautious tone in his speech yesterday, as the Fed Chair avoided committing to a rate cut at next month's meeting. He repeated that the risks to the labour market are tilted to the downside, while inflation risks remain to the upside – a mixed picture that requires careful policy adjustment.

UK Labour Market Cools Further as Wage Growth Eases, Keeping BoE Rate Cuts in Play

Private sector employment fell further in August, which should help take wage growth below 4% by year-end. That keeps the door open to further Bank of England easing, though our call for a November rate cut hangs in the 

FX Outlook: Softer US Data Fuels Dollar Weakness and Carry Trade Demand

After a couple of months of stability, we look for the dollar bear trend to resume into year-end. EUR/USD should be trading up at 1.20 by that stage after three Fed rate cuts. Even though valuations look stretched in equity and credit markets, we still prefer a benign decline in the dollar and a supported environment for risk assets and activity currencies

Commodities Outlook: OPEC+ in Focus, Metals Rally, Wheat Surplus

This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting is set to be a non-event, with the group expected to keep output levels unchanged

Bank of England: November Rate Cut Likely Despite Inflation Risks and Fiscal Uncertainty

Unlike financial markets, we still think the odds are tilted slightly in favour of another Bank of England rate cut in November. Nothing is guaranteed, though, and these are the key data points that will decide the fate of the Bank's easing cycle later this year

Markets Explode Higher as Powell’s Dovish Shift Slams Dollar, Lifts Crypto, Gold, and Equities

The Market is going wild from Powell's speech, interpreted as largely dovish! In case you missed it, you can access the text and a review of his live speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on this page:

Powell’s Jackson Hole Message Triggers Yield Curve Steepening and Dollar Weakness

Chair Powell could have been super balanced, or even hawkish. But he effectively chose to endorse the market discount for a rate-cutting phase ahead. It's had quite the reaction. Risk assets are up, the dollar down, so's the front-end yield. Watch longer tenor yields though - the deep thinkers of the bond market, and not quite convinced cuts are all good

USD/CAD Outlook: Geopolitical Risks, Fed Policy, and Canadian Inflation in Focus

USD/CAD advances in the US session, trading above the 100-day MA as the potential for further gains grows. There are of course headwinds for the pair which could scupper a move higher in the coming days.

Polish Inflation Slows to 3.1% in July on Energy Price Drop, Paving Way for NBP Rate Cuts

Polish headline inflation has been confirmed at 3.1% YoY in July, from 4.1% YoY in June, as the effect of the partial unfreeze of energy prices in mid-2024 died out. With inflation within the tolerance band of the National Bank of Poland's target (2.5%, +/- 1ppt), the central bank now has room to continue its monetary easing cycle

Markets Brace for "Liberation Day": Diverging Reactions Across Equities, FX, and Commodities

Markets are pricing in risks of tariffs with diverging movements across regions and asset classes. 

Tariffs risks saw US and Asian equities retreat while European equities outperformed. 

However, most G10 currencies outperformed the USD. Commodity- linked currencies like the CAD, AUD and NOK performed best.

FOMC Relief and Market Outlook: Tariffs, Growth, and Equities

Last week's FOMC meeting appeared to come as a relief to many market participants as two cuts remained in the dots for both this year and next (some had expected a cut to come out for this year). Further, Chair Powell seemed to downplay concerns about inflation, offering a bit more emphasis on the growth side of the mandate than perhaps assumed going into the meeting.

Fed Holds Steady Amid Uncertainty; Markets Eye Dot Plot, QT Strategy, and Global Risk Sentiment

“When the path is uncertain you go a little bit slower” – Chair Powell. The expectation is for the Fed to leave  their policy rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50%. To us, uncertainty around the macro environment and politics will  likely equate to little changes to the Fed’s forward guidance. Powell will likely want to keep all the options open.  

Market Selloff Deepens Amid Trade Uncertainty and Recession Fears

Wall Street plunged and Treasury yields fell on recession fears, triggered by relentless tariff wrangling and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies. Economic growth and demand concerns weighed on oil prices too. The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen. Gold dropped on profit booking.