The timing of the BoJ’s start to the normalisation process will likely depend on whether the Bank of Japan moves quickly or slowly to normalise its monetary policy and on the expectation of whether the Fed will move to cut rates next year.
The main scenario for the US is that the central bank policy tightening cycle is approaching its end and the global economy will show stronger signs of slowing down as slows the cumulative effects of policy rate hikes so far to suppress demand and dampen inflationary pressures.
An economic slowdown and expectations for interest rate cuts will likely strengthen downward pressure on global bond yields and give the BoJ room to reduce its JGB purchases while maintaining the current YCC framework. Based on the latest US financial accounts, the household savings rate (net asset change as a percentage of GDP) seems to have bottomed out at around 2.2% of GDP in Q422, and it has increased since then to 4.4% as of Q223.
The household savings rate rising again combined with economic data showing signs of weakness and weaker inflationary pressures is likely the basis for many market participants continuing to see a soft-landing scenario as their main scenario. As long as markets are pricing in a Fed rate cut sometime next year, the BoJ will likely continue with its current monetary easing policies. We continue to expect the BoJ to likely start the normalisation process by exiting from the YCC framework in CY25, once the global economy enters the next cyclical recovery.
At the G20 New Delhi Summit, the leaders of key economies agreed that “headwinds to global economic growth and stability persist” and shared concerns of a potential global economic slowdown. The BoJ seems to be maintaining the view that “there are extremely high uncertainties for Japan’s economic activity and prices, including developments in overseas economic activity and prices, developments in commodity prices, and domestic firms’ wage- and price-setting behavior”.
The BoJ will likely remain cautious of any major policy changes as long as the central bank holds such views, so as to not repeat past mistakes of premature policy tightening, especially as the government is maintaining a strong commitment to the Abenomics policy framework to pull Japan completely out of deflation. On the other hand, the risk scenario is if the global economy remains resilient and markets stop pricing policy rate cuts by key central banks next year, the BoJ could start the normalisation process in CY24 under the judgement that the global economy will remain strong
