Weekly Economic Outlook: Jackson Hole Symposium, PMI Data, and Global Economic Trends
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US
The main event for next week will be the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. Fed Chair Powell’s speech will reiterate that more rate hikes might be needed and that rates should stay higher for longer. With the recent surge with real yields, Fed Chair Powell can acknowledge that policy is restrictive and that future rate cuts could eventually be warranted as long as inflation has been defeated.
The economic data starts on Tuesday with the July existing homes sales report, which should show signs of stabilizing. Wednesday contains the flash PMIs, which could show manufacturing remains in contraction territory and softness with the service sector continues. On Thursday, we will get both initial jobless claims and the preliminary look at durable goods, which is expected to show weakness in July. Friday contains the release of the final reading of the University of Michigan sentiment report, with most traders wanting to know if inflation expectations had any major revisions.
Earnings for the week include results from Baidu, Lowe’s, Nvidia, and Snowflake,
Eurozone
As the ECB is poised to continue delivering more rate hikes to combat inflation, the risks of a hard landing are growing. There’s no shortage of economic releases next week but the one that stands out is the flash PMI readings. The manufacturing sector is clearly going to remain in contraction territory for all the key regions(Germany, France, eurozone), while the service sector steadily weakens, fighting to stay in expansion territory. Traders will also pay attention to both the German IFO business climate report as that could show expectations might be stabilizing and what should be another soft consumer confidence report.
Thin trading conditions in Europe could occur on Tuesday as some banks (France, Italy) are closed for Assumption Day.
UK
Next week is mostly about the UK flash PMI survey, as the composite PMI collapse in July is expected to be followed by further weakness in August. The manufacturing PMI is expected to weaken further from 45.3 to 45.0, the service reading to drop from 51.5 to 50.8, while the composite drops from 50.8 to 50.3. The UK economy is still expected to barely show growth in Q3, but the momentum is fading as the BOE’s rate hiking cycle starts to weigh on the economy.
Russia
Following the plunge in the ruble and an emergency rate hike, the focus on Russia will shift back to the war in Ukraine and the BRICS summit. Russia was having a growing influence in Africa, but that might get tested as President Putin will be absent given his indictment by the ICC.
The economic calendar is light with two releases, industrial production data on Wednesday and money supply on Friday.
South Africa
The one notable release will be the July inflation report. Inflation is expected to stay in the SARB’s target range between 3-6%. The annual headline reading is expected to drop from 5.4% to 4.9%, while the monthly reading rises from 0.2% to 1.0%. The monthly core reading is also expected to see a rise from 0.4% to 0.6%.
Turkey
With inflation out of control, the CBRT is expected to deliver its 3rd straight rise, bringing the 1-week report rate to 19.50%. The consensus range is to see the rate rise from 17.5% to anywhere between 18.50% and 20.5%. The 19.0% level was a key level in the past as that triggered the sacking of Governor Agbal.
Switzerland
Another quiet week with Money supply data released on Monday and export data on Tuesday.
China
One sole key economic data to watch will be on Monday, the monetary policy decision on its one-year and five-year loan prime rates that commercial banks used as a benchmark to price corporate, household loans and housing mortgages respectively.
After a surprise cut of 15 basis points (bps) on the one-year medium-term lending facility rate to 2.50% last Monday, its lowest level since late 2009 to defuse the potential contagion risk in China’s financial system triggered by a major trust fund that failed to make timely payments to holders of its wealth management products which are backed by unsold properties of indebted property developers; forecasts are now calling for a similar 15 bps cut on the one and five-year loan prime rates to bring it down to 3.4% and 4.05% respectively.
Market participants will also be on the lookout for more detailed fiscal stimulus from China’s top policymakers after recent “morale-boosting piecemeal rhetoric measures” that have failed to break the negative feedback loop in the China stock market; the benchmark CSI 300 index has given up all its ex-post Politburo gains from 25 July after the top leadership group promised to implement “counter-cyclical” measures to defuse the deflationary risk spiral in China.
For earnings report releases, a couple of major companies to take note of; Sunny Optical Technology (Tuesday), Country Garden Services (Tuesday), China Life Insurance (Thursday), NetEase (Thursday), Meituan (Friday).
India
A quiet calendar with only foreign exchange reserves and fortnightly bank loan growth data out on Friday.
Australia
Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs for August will be out on Wednesday.
New Zealand
Balance of Trade for July out on Monday is forecasted to shrink to a deficit of -NZ$0.4 billion from a surplus of NZ$9 million posted in June. If it turns out as expected, it will be its first trade deficit since March 2023 due to a weak external demand environment.
Q2 retail sales will be out on Wednesday where its prior Q1 negative growth of -4.1% y/y is forecasted to narrow to -0.9% y/y.
Japan
Two key data releases to monitor. Firstly, flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs for August out on Wednesday; manufacturing activities are forecasted to improve slightly to 49.9 from 49.6 printed in July while growth in the services sector is expected to come in almost unchanged at 53.6 versus 53.9 in July
Next up, the significant leading Tokyo area consumer inflation data for August out on Friday; both Tokyo core inflation (excluding fresh food) as well as its core-core inflation (excluding fresh food & energy) are forecasted to be unchanged at 3% y/y and 2.5% y/y respectively. Both inflation measures have remained elevated especially the core-core rate which has soared to a 31-year high.
Market participants will be keeping a close watch on the USD/JPY as it rallied past a key resistance zone of 145.50/146.10 despite rising concerns on possible BoJ’s FX intervention to negate the current bout of JPY weakness.
Singapore
Two key data to focus on. July’s consumer inflation out on Wednesday where the core inflation rate is expected to be almost unchanged at 4.1% y/y versus 4.2% y/y in June.
On Friday, industrial production for July is forecasted to show an improvement; -2.5% y/y from -4/9% y/y printed in June. Despite this forecasted improvement, it is still ten consecutive months of negative growth which increases the risk of a recession for Singapore in Q3 due to a weak external demand environment.
