defence spending

German Optimism Corrected Amid Structural Challenges; Fiscal Stimulus Offers Glimmer of Hope

With dropping expectations and an only somewhat improving current assessment, the November Ifo index suggests that the German economy remains deeply stuck in stagnation at year-end

German Economy Braces for Prolonged Stagnation Despite Fiscal Stimulus

The Ifo index increased in October on the back of improving expectations, while the current assessment worsened once again

Dutch Elections Preview: Fragmented Politics and Long-Term Fiscal Challenges Ahead

Expect political fragmentation to continue in the Netherlands as a government with less than four parties seems unlikely. While coming from a comfortable position in terms of economic growth and public finances, political indecision risks undermining the Netherlands’ favourable medium-term outlook 

Germany’s Ifo Index Rises, but Fiscal Stimulus Remains the Key to Recovery

The ongoing improvement in business sentiment reflects the strong belief in the healing nature of fiscal stimulus

European Consumers Prioritize Inflation and Economic Stability Over Job Loss, Favor Increased Government Spending in Healthcare, Education, and Defence

Our latest ING Consumer Research survey sheds light on what European consumers are worried about – and what they believe governments should prioritise in spending

Markets React to US Strikes, China Stimulus Hopes, and UK Welfare Reform Plans

• Overnight news: UST Secretary Bessent said “not worried about the markets”; US strikes Houthis; Chinese economic data beats; China to announce steps to revive spending; US President Trump to speak to Russia President Putin Tuesday 

• Data and events: US retail sales 

• UK Economic: Welfare spending in the crosshairs ahead of Spring Statement 

EM FX: Positive Growth Impulse in Europe Counters Tariff Hit to Asia

Positive growth impulse in Europe counters tariff hit to Asia The pick-up in risk aversion at the start of this week amongst market participants has triggered a correction lower for emerging market currencies. The CLP (-1.7% vs. USD), COP (-1.2%), BRL (-1.1%), IDR (-0.9%) and THB (-0.7%) have weakened the most since the end of last week while the Central European currencies of the CZK (+0.3% vs. USD) and HUF (+0.1%) have continued to outperform. 

USD: Deepening Equity Market Sell-Off Could Trigger Pick-Up in FX Volatility

The major FX rates have remained relatively stable at the start of this week in contrast to the deepening sell-off in the equity markets. One of the biggest movers yesterday was the Nasdaq composite index which fell sharply by 4.0% and extended its decline since the high in December to almost 14%.

EUR/JPY: Rising Global Yields Weigh on the US Dollar Amid BoJ and German Policy Shifts

The sharp move higher in yields outside of US has been an important driver of US dollar weakness at the start of this year. The 10-year JGB yield hit a fresh year to date high overnight of 1.58% and has now risen by around 40 basis points year to date.

Germany’s Fiscal Revolution: Shadow Budget and Debt Brake Reform Reshape Economic Landscape

Mr. Merz’s whatever-it-takes move lifts Germany’s growth outlook, shows strong determination for the European cause and sends a strong signal to the US and Russia.

Germany's Coalition Dilemma. CDU's Path to Power Amid Economic Stagnation and Geopolitical Tensions

While Germany is still digesting and debating Sunday's election results, the latest Ifo index reading suggests that the economy remains stuck in stagnation.