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The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has repeatedly warned of upside risks to inflation over the medium term, but this has not prevented the central bank from cutting rates as inflation moderates. Rate-setters have cut rates at each policy meeting since July, and we expect another 25bp cut on 5 November

Although September retail sales growth fell short of expectations due to weak food sales, the sector still performed strongly thanks to robust durable goods demand. When combined with solid industrial production and construction data, along with anticipated strength in services, this supports our projection of 4%YoY growth for 3Q25
