Dow Jones, Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500: Key takeaways 25/09/2025
- At the time of writing, the Dow Jones stands at $45,911, down 0.67% for the day, while the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 are at $24,325 and $6,604, down 0.91% and 0.71%, respectively
- While failing equity pricing following hot US GDP numbers seems counterintuitive, markets are interpreting how the economic data showing a stronger-than-expected economy will affect upcoming monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), 25/09/2025
US Equities continue losing streak despite positive GDP revision
At face value, the notion that strong economic growth, or at least, stronger than previously expected economic growth, could actually devalue US equities is confusing to say the least.
Not only considering today’s release, which revised Q2 growth from 3.3% to 3.8% as part of the final estimate, but also comparing GDP numbers from Q1 to Q2, there is reason to be more optimistic about the US economy than was twenty-four hours ago.
So why have US equities sold off across the board?
The answer, as ever, is how today’s data affects future monetary policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve.
In simple terms, rate cuts are harder to justify when the economy is reportedly strong. Given today’s data, some are asking questions about how aggressively the Federal Reserve will choose to continue its easing cycle, which started only last week in the form of a 25 basis point cut.
While further rate cuts before year-end remain overwhelmingly likely, any suggestion that rate cuts are becoming less likely, or harder to justify, courtesy of strong data, will typically hurt equity pricing, with lower interest rates promoting higher economic growth.
In a nutshell, the good news of a strong economy can be considered bad news for equities in the current market cycle, as it questions the notion that lower interest rates are coming, a key catalyst for a continued market rally.
The proof is in the metaphorical pudding, of course, and while the dollar has gained today, US equities remain somewhat off the boil as they retrace from previous highs.
DJIA (Dow Jones 30): Technical Analysis 25/09/2025
US30USD (Dow Jones Industrial Average), OANDA, TradingView, 23/09/2025
- While still firmly in bullish territory, price action in today’s session could break the current trendline, suggesting at best some consolidation will need to take place, or at worst, some downside might be possible in the short-term
- Forming throughout Tuesday’s trading, price action on the daily time frame is close to a gravestone doji candle, which has been followed by some textbook downside
Likely support
S1: $45,642
S2: $45,060
Likely resistance
R1: $46,480
Nasdaq-100: Technical Analysis 25/09/2025
NAS100USD (Nasdaq-100), OANDA, TradingView, 23/09/2025
- Boasting the best percentage performance of the three YTD, the Nasdaq-100 has broken the upward trend line in today’s session, suggesting price will need to consolidate or will risk a move to the downside
- In line with Fibonacci, on the daily timeframe, price has further to fall, with $24,035 being the next area of support. Especially regarding US tech, some continue to cast doubt over current valuations, with the collective P/E ratio averages slowly on the rise throughout 2025
