Key Data Releases and Projections for Poland and Hungary: CPI, GDP, and Economic Trends

There will be essential data releases in Poland next week with CPI expected to fall and GDP to decline for the second consecutive quarter. In Hungary, all eyes will be on the preliminary release of second-quarter GDP growth as it is expected to break a streak of three consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Poland: CPI and Flash GDP to be released

CPI (July): 10.8% YoY

The StatOffice is expected to confirm its flash estimate of July CPI inflation at 10.8% year-on-year. According to preliminary estimates, the price of food and non-alcoholic beverages fell by 1.2% month-on-month, the price of energy sources for housing was unchanged vs. in June, while gasoline prices increased by 0.4%MoM. We estimate that core inflation moderated to 10.5%YoY from 11.1%YoY in the previous month. In August, annual inflation will be close to single-digit levels and will certainly fall below 10%YoY in September.

Flash GDP (2Q23): -0.3% YoY

According to our forecasts, the second quarter of 2023 was the second consecutive quarter of GDP declines in annual terms. We think the economy shrank at a similar scale as in the first quarter, with an even deeper annual decline in household consumption (close to -3%YoY), while fixed investment continued to expand. We judge the positive contribution of net exports was higher than the drag from a change in inventories. A more decisive improvement in economic activity is projected for the fourth quarter.