Following a second quarter still heavily impacted by the introduction of new US tariffs, early data for the third quarter points to a very mild improvement, though sectoral contributions remain uneven. Today’s confidence indicators for September appear to support this view
The eurozone's trade balance edged up slightly in July, driven mainly by a drop in imports, while exports also declined modestly. Excluding the energy crisis period, this marks one of the smallest trade surpluses in the past decade
Economic growth in Poland remains robust (3.4% year-on-year in 2Q) and is more buoyant than in other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Industry is facing the same headwinds as CEE peers, and construction is stagnant while services are solidly expanding. Consumption growth should allow for near-4% YoY growth in the second half and 3.5% GDP in 2025
The 0.1% GDP contraction was driven by the net exports drag, partially offset by inventories and gross fixed capital formation. Consumption was flat, but could improve a bit over the rest of the year should inflation remain under control, as we believe
In August, France’s business climate index remained stuck at 96 for the third consecutive month. While stable, it continues to hover below its long-term average, a sign that the economy is holding its breath rather than gaining momentum
