Such volatile events are tough to predict and their effects are even tougher to predict – But one thing stands: Oil always found sellers during the first 8 months of this year.
Now, Trump and Putin are supposed to meet in person ahead of a deadline that would impose gigantic tariffs on Russian exports as a menace for them to end the war.
It would be very interesting to see how markets react to a cease-fire in Ukraine, particularly as we all pray for peace.
In the meantime, let's have a look at Black Gold to spot why the commodity struggles so much, at least on the technical side.
US Oil went through a tough past week after showing a wick at the middle of its past $65 to $70 range.
Today's trading shows a mildly bullish candle but a failure to close above the past session $65 highs would keep it in bearish territory – The commodity is now trading below both its 50 and 200 Day Moving averages which would confirm the bearish outlook.
Momentum which was tilting downwards is starting to flatten, a sign of bear exhaustion which comes around the May range highs around $64.
It seems that Markets are once again waiting to see the US inflation data to know if stimulatory policies could get priced in further to provide a fresh bid to the commodity
Looking closer the the 4H Candle, WTI is evolving downwards after showing a break retest of its mid-May upward trendline which previously acted as a demand zone for buyers.
Since, sellers have formed an intermediate bearish trend that is still holding. Due to its steep regression, any break would lead to consolidation before any reversal gets higher probability.
Watch again for the communications of the Trump-Putin meeting which may add to the volatility as depending on the outcomes, a break in the war may slow down the Russian supply.
Levels to watch for US Oil:
Resistance Levels
- Key Support Zone turned pivot $65
- Imminent Pivot Zone $67.30 to $68 – Confluence with 50 and 200 Day MAs
- 69.5–$70.5 Resistance Zone, range extremes
Support Levels
- $63.20 to $64 May Range highs support
- 60.5 Low of May Range
- $55 to $57 2025 lows Main support
Zooming even closer to the 1H timeframe, WTI buyers are stepping in at the conjunction of the downwards intermediate trendline and the 50-H MA after forming an hourly double bottom around $63.30.
Breaking that trendline would look to then test the $65 to $66 Support zone turned Pivot, important for the next technical phase.
A rejection of that $65 would confirm further bearish outlooks while repassing above would put back the commodity in its $65 to $70 range.
