Poland’s Strong Consumption and Investment Point to Robust Growth with Mild Inflation Outlook
Ukraine Peace Deal Hopes Weigh on EUR Inflation Swaps as Real Rates Hit New Highs
Germany’s Economy: Three Years of Stagnation With Only Limited Signs of Recovery
Commodities Move on Geopolitics and Weather as Oil Rises, Gas Falls, and Nickel Faces Supply Risks
USD Overvaluation Persists as Geopolitics Dominate and JPY Faces Intervention Risks
China may well be the outlier in all of this as there has been no need for excessive monetary tightening and rather, the slowdown in growth is almost certainly behind it. In fact, the transition from zero-Covid to living with it is reportedly going very smoothly which could boost the economy earlier and by more than expected, leading to higher growth forecasts for 2023.
While that could support the global economy through a difficult period, it may also worsen the inflation problem due to much higher demand for commodities including crude oil. Oil prices have been trending higher in recent days on these improved forecasts, although they still remain around the middle of the range they’ve traded within since early December.
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Fed Chair Powell’s soothing words generated some relief in gold as well overnight, although compared to the declines late last week, it was quite mild. The yellow metal has been on a phenomenal run since early December and a correction was growing ever more likely. While traders have welcomed Powell’s consistent stance, it may not be enough to save gold and a deeper correction could well be on the cards. It’s seeing some support now around $1,860 but more substantial support may be found around $1,820-$1,830.
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