French business confidence and PMI indicators edged higher in November, driven by renewed optimism in the service sector. This rebound could support growth in the coming months, despite more mixed signals from industry
Following a second quarter still heavily impacted by the introduction of new US tariffs, early data for the third quarter points to a very mild improvement, though sectoral contributions remain uneven. Today’s confidence indicators for September appear to support this view
Economic growth in Poland remains robust (3.4% year-on-year in 2Q) and is more buoyant than in other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Industry is facing the same headwinds as CEE peers, and construction is stagnant while services are solidly expanding. Consumption growth should allow for near-4% YoY growth in the second half and 3.5% GDP in 2025
August confidence indicators paint a picture of economic inertia, with growth momentum still concentrated in the services sector
Today’s flash GDP data has confirmed our forecast for the second quarter, with annual growth continuing to expand at a modest 0.3% pace. We don’t expect major improvements at this stage, with risks actually tilted to the downside, and we continue to expect a 0.3% advance for the full year in 2025
