Romanian consumers have recently hit the brakes, signalling increased caution. While some of the August slowdown can be attributed to pre-emptive spending ahead of tax hikes, that doesn’t fully explain the drop. We do not expect this steep decline to become the norm, but caution is likely to persist into year-end and early 2026
Despite inflation nearing double digits and real rates staying negative, the National Bank of Romania (NBR) is expected to maintain its cautious stance at its 8 October meeting, prioritising stability amid weakening consumption and uncertain growth prospects
Inflation in Romania rose sharply in July, reaching 7.8% - well above our forecast of 6.4%. The entire deviation stems from the energy sector, particularly electricity prices, which spiked by almost 62% versus the previous month. As a result, we have revised our year-end inflation estimate upward to 9.3%
