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We expected CPI inflation to increase slightly in September from August amid a shallower annual decline in fuel prices – but low food prices surprisingly kept the headline figure unchanged, bolstering the argument for more rate cuts. Even so, we expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to postpone the move until November

The decline in Egypt’s annual headline CPI number for February was exceptionally large at over 12pp, but it did not really tell us anything that we did not already know.

In this CEEMEA Economics Analyst, we provide greater detail in support of our forecast for aggressive easing in policy rates over the coming 12 months.







