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inflation risks
Articles related to inflation risks
ront-End Stagnation and Long-End Shifts: Diverging Dynamics in Euro and US Yield Curves
The current risks are towards more ECB easing, but because medium-term risks are tilted to the upside, we think markets will remain firmly anchored around a 1.75% landing zone. In the US, the ultra front end has a tight feel to it, while longer tenor yields have a more loose tendency. We identify some technical factors driving this
Hungary’s Labour Market Holds Steady Amid Seasonal Boost and Rising Wage Pressures
Hungary's recent labour market data shows a seasonal improvement, resulting in a record-high employment rate. The situation for employers is growing hotter as wage expectations remain high, but the economy struggles to thrive
Political Uncertainty, Fed Independence, and the Steeper Yield Curve Ahead
The thing about the Lisa Cook affair is it's laced with legal grey. We make the simple apolitical assumption, from a market’s perspective, that Ms Cook will be replaced. Tough to undo what's been done, and an extrapolation of these circumstances result in a steeper curve from both ends. The front end does not care. The back end cares a lot (or at least should)
USD Holds Range as Markets Reassess Powell’s Jackson Hole Tone and September Cut Odds
The US Dollar has been in a weird trading zone since the contradicting NFP report from the beginning of the month (forcing a dovish hand) and the strong PPI report that has shown the appearance of tariff effects (forcing a hawkish hand).
German Yields Near 2% as Markets Reassess ECB Cuts and US Curve Steepens
Eurozone optimism has pushed the German two-year yield to the brink of pre-'Liberation Day' levels. Just shy of 2%, the balance of risk is towards near-term lower yields again. US rates are quick to fade the dovish move from last Friday, and we think the back end of the curve will want to test higher still
Powell’s Jackson Hole Message Triggers Yield Curve Steepening and Dollar Weakness
Chair Powell could have been super balanced, or even hawkish. But he effectively chose to endorse the market discount for a rate-cutting phase ahead. It's had quite the reaction. Risk assets are up, the dollar down, so's the front-end yield. Watch longer tenor yields though - the deep thinkers of the bond market, and not quite convinced cuts are all good
FOMC Minutes, US Auction Signals, and Shifting Global Yield Dynamics
The FOMC minutes seem to be from a different time, pre the payrolls revisions; but can still embolden Powell on Friday. Gilt yields came down on the day of hotter CPI numbers suggesting a possible peak. Having said that, with Autumn Budget discussions kicking off, volatility is likely to remain. Meanwhile, the path for the 10y euro swap rate is still up
The Impact of New Auto Tariffs: Economic Risks and Policy Uncertainty
President Trump announced tariffs on autos and parts. In line with our expectations, and ahead of the main course expected for April 2nd, the US announced this week 25% tariffs on imports of autos and auto parts.
FX Market Update: Cautious Trading Ahead of Fed Decision; USD Firms, TRY Slides
• USD firmer as markets trade cautiously into Fed decision.
• CAD slips back from probe through upper 1.42s.
• EUR drifts lower after another failure around 1.0950 yesterday.
• GBP tracks peers, short-term price patterns may be tilting negative.
• JPY drops after BoJ holds policy rate at 0.50%, as expected.
• AUD, NZD lower in line with peers; Aus jobs, NZ GDP data due tonight.
• MXN softer on the day but holds gains back through 20.
CAD Strengthens as BoC Signals Caution on Rate Cuts
The Canadian dollar was the top performing G10 currency yesterday with the policy announcement and communication update ultimately helping to lift the currency. The 25bp cut was well telegraphed and fully priced so the 10bp intra-day jump in the 2yr swap rate was more down to the communications having a hawkish element.
How can investors deal with geopolitical risks?
Diplomatic efforts have intensified to stop the fighting between both Russia and Ukraine as well as Israel and Hamas. But a durable resolution to both conflicts will not be easy to achieve. The public disagreement in the White House between President Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart underlined the challenges.
What does President Trump mean for markets?
We do not expect large, broad, and sustained US tariffs, but repeated threats of higher tariffs on key trading partners and a lack of policy visibility could weigh on business investment and hiring even if they are never imposed. More volatile markets require an increased focus on portfolio diversification and hedging approaches.
USD Outlook: Economic Softness and Market Weakness Test Trump’s Tariff Strategy
The US dollar is little changed at the start of this week as it continues to trade at weaker levels following last week’s sharp sell-off. The dollar index has fallen back below the 104.00-level giving back all of its gains since the US election victory for President Trump.
February Jobs Report: Solid Payroll Growth but Signs
Market Swings, Policy Uncertainty, and the Shifting Fed Outlook
ECB to Deliver 25bp Rate Cut; Market Focus Shifts to Slower Pace and Geopolitical Risks
ECB Maintains Status Quo with No Hints on Future Direction
Asia's Economic Outlook: China's GDP, Australia's Unemployment, and More
Hungarian Inflation: Downside Surprise Signals Economic Uncertainties Ahead
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Holds Steady: Key Rates Unchanged as BSP Maintains Caution Amid Economic Shifts
Hungarian Inflation Dips into Single Digits: A Symbolic Victory with Challenges Ahead
Trading Carefully: Bank of England Keeps Rates at 5.25% Amid Inflation Concerns
National Bank of Hungary's Shift: Moving Away from Autopilot Monetary Policy
Boosting Stimulus: A Look at Recent Developments and Market Impact
Rates Reach New Highs: Implications for Markets and Central Banks
Weekly Economic Outlook: Jackson Hole Symposium, PMI Data, and Global Economic Trends
The Everything Selloff: Examining Global Market Trends Amidst Growing Concerns
Hawkish Fed Minutes Spark US Market Decline to One-Month Lows on August 17, 2023
RBA's Close Call: Pause Decision and Australia's Confidence Data Await
Tackling Turkey's Inflation Challenge: A Closer Look at Monetary Policy and Price Pressures
NZD Jobs Data and RBNZ Messaging: Assessing Inflation Risks and Currency Outlook
Central Bank Focuses on Extending Rate Stability Amidst Inflation Concerns
The Czech National Bank Challenges Dovish Market Expectations Amidst Inflation Risks
Declining Industrial Activity and PPI in Poland Signal Potential Policy Easing
