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US Secretary Bessent said the Fed should cut by 50bp in September, and that rates are 150-175bp above where they should be. Markets aren’t considering a 50bp move as an option, and we doubt they will unless there are hints in that direction from Fed members or if the jobs data falls much further. Today, Norges Bank should hold rates, with some minor hawkish risk

A sharp plunge in industrial production data suggests that the initial signs of an inventory cycle turn were mainly driven by US frontloading rather than a genuine cyclical recovery. Industrial weakness looks set to continue






