Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 4.75% amid inflation pressures and rupiah weakness, but we expect a cut in December to support growth. Risks remain skewed toward delays if currency pressures persist or the Fed postpones easinga
As expected, NBP policymakers delivered their fourth consecutive 25bp rate cut in November, extending the scale of monetary easing this year to 150bp. Rate-setters reacted to lower current inflation, but may pause before a final adjustment to monetary policy. We see two more cuts in the first half of next year, with the target rate at 3.5-4% in 2026
At the time of writing, UK rates markets are expecting the BoE to keep the bank rate unchanged at its March policy meeting and to ease a total of c.53bp by the end of 2025. The view is broadly consistent with our own view that foresees two additional BoE rate cuts in the coming months.
The Australian dollar has declined by 0.37% on Wednesday and is trading at 0.6320 in the European session. AUD/USD is down for a fourth consecutive trading day and has lost 1.2% during that time.
