This more than compensates for August’s fall, confirming that summer data has to be interpreted with a pinch of salt. Italy's industrial stagnation is not over yet, but the picture might improve marginally over the fourth quarter
Conditions in manufacturing have deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month, which can undoubtedly be viewed as a negative signal for the economy when looking ahead. Although below the expansionary threshold, the PMI is nowhere near the depressed 2023 levels. Should the hard times continue, an adverse effect on growth in 2026 is a possibility
Italy's October inflation numbers show a marked deceleration. This is very much an energy and fresh food story, against stable core inflation. As we don’t expect an imminent change to the pattern, we're trimming our forecast for average 2025 headline inflation to 1.6%
August’s Italian production numbers suggest that a hoped-for timid improvement in the third quarter has not materialised. While some caveats should apply when dealing with summertime data, it would seem the onus now lies with a growth in services
Although real wage growth was strong in June, it has not yet returned to the double-digit levels seen in previous years. We expect negative perceptions of household finances to persist. Weak consumer confidence continues to be a problem for the economy
The ongoing improvement in business sentiment reflects the strong belief in the healing nature of fiscal stimulus
President Trump announced tariffs on autos and parts. In line with our expectations, and ahead of the main course expected for April 2nd, the US announced this week 25% tariffs on imports of autos and auto parts.
Japan: the weak JPY has turned from a problem to a nest egg . The level of JPY weakness has changed from a ‘problem’ to a ‘nest egg’ as the Trump administration’s tariff rate hikes require a buffer. With the buffer of a weaker JPY, the auto industry may be able to continue domestic production without having to raise prices significantly in the US in response to higher tariff rates.
