Key Data and Monetary Policy Outlook: Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Singapore
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Australia
Two key data to focus on to gauge the next move on RBA’s monetary policy stance where it has reiterated its current tightening mode on last week’s release of RBA June meeting minutes.
On Wednesday, the monthly CPI Indicator for May is expected to come in at a slower growth rate of 6.1% year-on-year from 6.8% in April. If it turns out as expected, it will be the lowest level of inflation growth since March 2023.
On Thursday, preliminary retail sales for May is expected to show a growth of 0.1% month-on-month after zero growth recorded in April.
As of 23 June, the pricing on the ASX 30-day Interbank Cash Rate futures July contract has indicated a 32% chance of a 25-bps hike in the next RBA monetary policy meeting on 4th July 2023 to bring the cash rate up to 4.35%.
New Zealand
2 key data to focus on; Business Confidence for June out on Thursday where the forecast is calling for a slight improvement to -28 from -31.1 in May.
On Friday, Consumer Confidence for June is forecasted to dip to 77 from 79.2 recorded in May, if it turns out as expected, it will be the lowest level since December 2022.
Japan
Several key data to pay attention to. On Monday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s Summary of Opinions. Retail sales for May will be released on Thursday where the consensus estimates are calling for a rebound to 5.4% year-on-year from 5% in April. Consumer confidence for June will also be released on the same day with an improvement to 38 being forecasted from 36 recorded in May. If it turns out as forecasted, it will be the 5th consecutive month of improvement in Japanese consumer sentiment.
Lastly, on Friday, we will have the all-important leading Tokyo area inflation data for June. Pay close attention to Tokyo’s core-core inflation rate (excluding fresh food & energy) that accelerated in May to 2.4% year-on-year, close to a 31-year high. If it continues to surge higher in June, it will run counter to BoJ’s latest guidance that has indicated that Japan’s inflation growth is at risk of a slowdown in the second half of the current fiscal year.
Singapore
Industrial production for May will be released on Monday, a further deceleration is expected to -7.2% year-on-year from -6.9% printed in April. If it turns out as expected, it will mark eight consecutive months of contraction of industrial production given the slowing external demand environment.
On Thursday, we will have PPI for May for a further deflationary spiral in producers’ prices is being forecasted at -12.4% year-on-year from -11.4% in April.
