Intuitively, a deal with Russia would help euro rates higher, but falling gas futures are already pushing down the curve through lower inflation expectations. Tensions with Russia are likely to stay, which means risk sentiment should remain fragile
Euro rates are more focused on the improving macro story than on AI-driven equity jitters. This also means that Bunds may not prove an effective hedge against an equity sell-off
The drop in USD this week seems to be linked to expectations that US data will come in soft. But hearing Fed speakers, the move seems a bit premature, even if it looks like we could get September payrolls data soon. In the UK, the government is scrapping its income tax hike plans. GBP downside risks have suddenly increased
Oil prices managed to edge higher yesterday, despite several bearish data releasesa
We think markets are right to price in more Bank of England easing, but the upcoming budget on 26 November can still bring both bullish and bearish surprises. Meanwhile, concerns around the US job market are offsetting the positive impact of a likely government reopening on risk sentiment
Inflation in Hungary showed signs of stagnation in October, yet this is still not a success story. With price pressures still above the central bank’s target, it is highly unlikely that we will see any interest rate cuts until autumn next year
Third-quarter GDP growth disappointed at 4.0% YoY, dragged down by weak investment and softer government spending, while exports provided temporary support. We downgrade our 2025 growth forecast to 4.7% (from 5.2%) as sentiment weakens and tariff headwinds loom, reinforcing our call for a 25bp central bank rate cut in December
Oil prices settled lower yesterday with a large increase in US crude oil inventories, while surplus expectations for the global oil market will also be providing some headwinds
Fed Chair Powell's reticence to cut in December remains a driver of sentiment. Nevertheless, Treasuries are interpreting the various crosswinds as supportive of a rise in yields. We don't think the Bank of England will cut, but markets are not fully convinced. Gilt yields have little room to move lower as the Budget risk premium has already fallen
Increased Chinese competition within Europe and in third markets has been a trend that restarted with Covid, and may intensify now as a result of global trade tensions. While stronger Chinese competition can potentially mute eurozone inflation and GDP growth, it is also likely to aggravate problems in key industries
The UN climate conference in Belém has ignited a fierce debate and highlighted serious climate policy hurdles, before it has even begun. Despite these challenges, we see COP30 as a pivotal opportunity for meaningful boardroom conversations on carbon markets, sustainable finance and renewables
Conditions in manufacturing have deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month, which can undoubtedly be viewed as a negative signal for the economy when looking ahead. Although below the expansionary threshold, the PMI is nowhere near the depressed 2023 levels. Should the hard times continue, an adverse effect on growth in 2026 is a possibility
Higher-than-expected Japanese inflation in October, together with improvements in production and retail sales, suggests growth is bottoming out toward quarter-end, while price pressures continue to intensify. The Bank of Japan may consider an earlier rate increase
The dollar enjoyed a second round of support yesterday as Powell's relatively hawkish press conference continued to resonate with data-starved markets. But the conditions for another big leg higher in USD aren't there, in our view. Meanwhile, Japan has intervened verbally to curb JPY volatility, and GBP is looking closely at Reeves' political position
US sanctions on Russian oil producers triggered a rally in crude. So far, however, that has only erased October’s losses, and it remains unclear whether Russian oil flows will be affected enough to justify structurally higher prices, and, by extension, a stronger USD. So far, the FX impact has been small, partly due to a cautious stance ahead of US CPI
Expect political fragmentation to continue in the Netherlands as a government with less than four parties seems unlikely. While coming from a comfortable position in terms of economic growth and public finances, political indecision risks undermining the Netherlands’ favourable medium-term outlook
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 19
Today’s story was one of cautious optimism for global trade, as both Washington and Beijing struck a more constructive tone.
The Bank of Japan held rates steady, but hawkish sentiment grew with two dissenting votes. The market was surprised by the announcement to sell ETFs and J-REITs, which signalled the BoJ's firm commitment to policy normalisation. We continue to see October as the most likely time for a rate hike
The oil market is under pressure in the European morning, even as the American Petroleum Institute (API) reports a drop in US crude oil inventory
Political instability and missed fiscal targets are raising doubts about France’s ability to meet EU rules and avoid further rating downgrades. Here's what's happening and how the markets are reacting
Inflation eased in August, largely due to a one-time reduction in mobile phone fees, suggesting a rebound in September. Even so, inflation is likely to remain below 2%, supporting a Bank of Korea rate cut in October
The 0.1% GDP contraction was driven by the net exports drag, partially offset by inventories and gross fixed capital formation. Consumption was flat, but could improve a bit over the rest of the year should inflation remain under control, as we believe
NVDA was a touch disappointing, mostly on China, while other components were largely in line. Japan AI proxies are trading higher (GSXAJPAI +1.4%), though NVDA price action will come down to positioning setup.
The Bank of Korea held policy rates at 2.5%, with a dissenting vote raising expectations for an October rate cut. The BoK’s cautious growth view also suggests more rate cuts may be on the way in 2026
Friday's ecstatic trading brought all risk-assets including Equity indices, cryptocurrencies and FX currencies higher.
The week started badly for French assets, as the French PM called for a confidence vote that opposition parties immediately responded to with a 'no confidence.' The EURUSD consolidated below its 50-DMA despite a broadly pressured US dollar, which feels the pinch of a growing dispute between Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Lisa Cook and US President Donald Trump, who attempted to fire her without necessarily having the authority to do so.
The Swiss franc recovered some of its losses last week. Economic data continues to point to disruptions from Trump’s upending of global trade. After a jump in June, real exports sank in July (-2.7% MoM). US-bound exports rose 1.1%, as buyers raced against time to avoid paying steep levies on products such as watches or machinery.
Wall Street's main indexes surged on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut during his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
The Dow Jones rose 887.83 points (1.99%) to a record high of 45,680.14. The S&P 500 gained 102.14 points (1.61%) to 6,472.31, and the Nasdaq climbed 421.85 points (2.00%) to 21,520.79.
Selling pressure across most major US and European indices continued yesterday. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine persist with mutual attacks, while hawkish risks to the market's recent dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) narrative persist. Weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey were broadly consistent with concerns over a slowing labour market and lingering price pressures.
The EU and the US have just released the so-called 'Framework Agreement', offering more binding details on the arrangement reached four weeks ago in Scotland
The release of the July FOMC minutes failed to move the needle on the dollar story. What is interesting is the continued strong performance of Chinese assets, with the benchmark CSI 300 equity index up 5.9% this month in dollar terms and the PBoC's USD/CNY fixing at its lowest since last November. Investor appetite for EM is typically a dollar negative
Bank Indonesia (BI) delivered a surprise second consecutive rate cut, signalling a clear focus on growth despite recent strong data. With inflation still below target and US Federal Reserve easing expected from September, we now see BI front-loading its final 25bp cut to the fourth quarter of this
A selloff across US Big Tech names dampened market mood yesterday, triggered largely by mounting doubts over the AI boom. An MIT report revealed that 95% of companies investing in generative AI have yet to see returns, while OpenAI CEO Sam Altman himself warned that some sector valuations were "insane." The comments may have been a wake-up call for investors, sparking a sharp pullback in high-flying names.
UK inflation was higher than expected in July, but given it was driven primarily by airfares, the Bank of England won’t be too concerned. A November rate cut hangs in the balance, though it remains our base case
The ongoing war in Russia has counterintuitively been one of the most significant bearish catalysts in the black gold– Russia floods the market of Oil to countries like India to sponsor its war, prompting threats from Trump.
The dollar dropped for the second day in a row on Wednesday. This came after U.S. inflation data raised hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, and President Donald Trump's push for lower rates added more pressure on the dollar.
Today’s flash GDP data has confirmed our forecast for the second quarter, with annual growth continuing to expand at a modest 0.3% pace. We don’t expect major improvements at this stage, with risks actually tilted to the downside, and we continue to expect a 0.3% advance for the full year in 2025
The Australian dollar has extended its gains on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6551, up 0.33% on the day. The Aussie is trading at its highest levels since July 28, as the US dollar is showing signs of weakness against the major crurrencies.
Wall Street's main indexes slipped on Monday as the US session got into gear. Market participants are bracing for a busy week which includes US inflation data and major geopolitical developments.
At the time of writing the S&P 500 was down 0.15% while the DOW was down as much as 0.54%, weighed down largely by industrial stocks, with the sector down 1.6% on the day.
As expected, the US and China confirmed a 90-day extension of their trade truce, after several rounds of “productive” negotiations. This keeps tariffs steady until November. Yet after the wave of August tariff hikes, the relative handicap for Chinese exporters has narrowed somewhat
Today's huge turn in the US stocks have sent another round of confusion in the daily cross-asset picture.
Last month, we discussed how the solid US job market was giving Fed Chair Jerome Powell the confidence to resist political pressure to cut rates. Well, the huge downward revisions to the May and June jobs data have undermined both Powell’s resistance and the dollar. We now look for three Fed rate cuts, starting in September, and a broadly weaker dollar
Potential US Fed rate cuts, along with continued central bank buying and ETF inflows, could send gold to fresh highs. And that's why we're changing our forecast
While the Reserve Bank of India held rates steady, it significantly lowered its inflation outlook. The combination of softer inflation and emerging downside risks to growth suggests there is still room for further rate cuts - particularly if monetary policy transmission improves. Meanwhile, a stable rate differential should be supportive of the rupee
The week kicked off with a risk-positive tone as headlines around a Euro–US trade breakthrough triggered a sharp gap higher in global markets. As a result, the US Dollar caught a strong bid, with the Euro and Yen notably losing ground amid improving US trade positioning and capital rotation into USD assets.
After an already eventful week, markets will have more to digest on Friday. The US payroll numbers will be the highlight, although the potential spillovers to other markets have lessened. Furthermore, we see room for a steeper euro curve after the recent flattening spell. The 10Y Bund should also start underperforming swaps as risk sentiment improves
A trade deal between the US and EU proved positive for sentiment this morning in the oil market. However, attention will likely turn to OPEC+ output policy from September
The current confidence picture in Italy is mixed, with visible improvements among consumers and manufacturers and a small deterioration in services and construction. This still seems consistent with positive GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025
A US-EU deal is reportedly imminent and should follow the US-Japan 15% tariff blueprint. The ECB should anyway tread carefully and offer no new guidance, but comments about the euro’s strength can be read as dovish. We think EUR/USD may be close to a peak and we favour a correction in the near term. The yen’s rally also appears to have gone too far
China's exports held up well in the first half of 2025 as shipments to other regions offset the drag from the US, resulting in net exports contributing 1.7pp to 1H25 GDP growth. We could see more strains ahead if tariffs rise anew and re-exports are targeted. But China’s competitiveness in key sectors and in other markets should limit the downside
Markets’ defiant approach to tariff news will be tested in the coming days as the risk of no trade deals before the 1 August deadline rises. The consensus view is probably that the dollar can lose more ground on a higher average US tariff rate, but the euro’s ability to benefit from it may depend on whether the EU gets sucked into a major tit-for-tat escalation
Industrial data for May shows that the positive trends observed in April were a one-off. Furthermore, the number of companies retaining labour is gradually decreasing due to falling demand. The outlook is gloomy, with no sign of a sudden turnaround
The inflation rate in the eurozone ticked up slightly to 2% on higher energy prices, but core inflation remained stable at 2.3%. Inflationary pressures have clearly weakened as wage growth is coming down and economic performance remains sluggish, keeping the door open to another rate cut in autumn
Trump denied earlier intelligence reports suggesting that the US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites caused only limited damage. On the contrary, he claimed the operation was a historic success and even declared the war over — 'except that it could maybe restart soon.' Still, the US and Iran are scheduled to meet for diplomatic talks in Iran this weekend, which appears to be a signal that Trump genuinely wants to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East.
Taiwan's industrial production growth was 22.6% YoY in May, beating forecasts for yet another month.
FX Market Update—The USD is strengthening broadly on the back of geopolitical tensions as market participants respond to news of Israeli airstrikes launched against Iran. The distribution of FX returns is one of classic risk aversion with underperformance from AUD and NZD, weakness in MXN and SEK, and losses for EUR and GBP.
Despite legal challenges to IEEPA tariffs, US trade policy remains firm. Tariffs on steel and aluminium have doubled, and new sectoral tariffs are expected. Trade deals may emerge, but most will be symbolic. Effective tariff rates will stay high throughout 2025
New York, NY - Hola Prime, a leading proprietary trading firm, has announced its expansion into futures trading with a clear and ambitious goal: to simplify one of the most complicated and inaccessible segments of the financial markets.
Stocks advanced as cooler-than- expected inflation data helped stanch a sharp selloff, while the escalation of U.S. President Donald Trump's chaotic, multi-front tariff war kept gains in check.
The euro and the European equity futures are in the green this Monday morning on relief that the German elections didn't bring major surprises. Merz' CDU/CSU won the election with around 28.5% of the votes – a good result for the center right though slightly weaker-than-expected, Olaf Scholz' SPD gained around 16% of support – as expected, while the AfD amassed 20% of the votes.