Rates Spark: The Concern of Curve Inversion and Central Bank Impact on Market Sentiment

Rates Spark: The worry about curve inversion

Hawkish central banks and low market growth expectations have kept rates in a range. This has largely benefitted risk appetite but is also resulting in a more inverted curve, hardly an encouraging macro signal.

 

Powell and Schnabel might accelerate the curve inversion trend today

We tend to be sceptical of the overall impact central bank comments can have on day-to-day market rate movements. One reason is the abundance of central bank communication. The other is their data-dependent setting (see yesterday’s note) which put economic releases firmly in the driving seat of market moves. Unfortunately, today is, like yesterday, much heavier on central bank communication than on economic data. This means the signal to noise ratio is likely to remain low. Still, today’s headliner, Fed chair Jerome Powell, is probably the world’s most watched central banker, so his testimony will carry weight with investors. Similarly, we think Isabel Schnabel’s interventions are amongst the most listened to out of the European Central Bank (ECB).

 

This year in rates has been characterised by a tug-of-war between hawkish central banks and pessimistic markets, at least when it comes to growth. A hawkish tone in the face of sticky core inflation makes sense but central banks have hurt their credibility by reinforcing their message with overly upbeat growth forecasts. 

 

This makes sense up to a point, as markets are much more likely to believe a hawkish central bank if economic growth allows it to tighten policy further. However it seems markets collectively disagree with central banks’ forecasts, by pricing subsequent rate cuts. In short, central banks’ sphere of influence doesn’t extend much beyond the front-end of the curve.