Our latest ING Consumer Research survey sheds light on what European consumers are worried about – and what they believe governments should prioritise in spending
Chair Powell does not have to pretend to maintain a degree of hawkishness as the recent data in fact supports such a stance. The next FOMC is still a month away; plently of time to pivot. Good eurozone PMIs support the idea of a cyclical upswing, which would put more upward pressure on the belly of the curve as it raises the probability of an ECB hike in 2026
July's macro data bolsters the case for the National Bank of Poland to continue its monetary easing path. Growth in industry remains slow, construction is still stagnant, wage increases have eased, and the employment decline has deepened. We expect a 25bp cut in early September, with the policy rate falling to 4.25% at the end of 2025 from the current 5.00%
Poland’s external current account surplus in June was a positive surprise, as it was also driven by a positive balance in merchandise trade. One data reading does not necessarily signal a new trend – but it may suggest a change in underlying macro developments, especially softer domestic demanda
German 30-year yields are on the rise, with the curve hinting at more to come. German fiscal plans and Dutch pension fund reform are factors in play. The US is in a similar mode, with fiscal and CPI data followed by upward pressure on long yields
The price actions of the Germany 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the DAX futures) have staged a corrective decline of 5% from its current all-time high of 24,655 on 10 July 2025 to 1 August 2025 intraday low of 23,385.
Several key technical elements are now advocating for a potential recovery to kickstart a new impulsive up move sequence within its major uptrend phase.
Markets have opened the week with relatively subdued movements as players brace for tomorrow's major US CPI release.
The Canadian dollar continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3732 down 0.10% on the day.
Retail sales increased by 0.3% in June, with the year-on-year growth pace accelerating from 1.9% to 3.1%. This suggests that household consumption is likely to underpin growth in the second half of the year
With South Korean consumer inflation near 2% and GDP projected to rise, the Bank of Korea is likely to wait for clearer signs of housing market stability before easing. We still prefer an October rate cut over August.
Steady inflation confirms that the eurozone is in Lagarde’s “good place” at the moment. Expect inflation to remain around target for the months ahead
The main events of the week will be key data reports from China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan as economists try to assess trade-war effects across Asia. Also, we expect the Reserve Bank of India to hold interest rates steady
Headline inflation remained unchanged at 2% year-on-year. Looking ahead, German and eurozone inflation are likely to fulfil the ECB's old target of 'below but close to 2%'
The slowdown in energy prices was offset by rising costs in food and certain services, leaving headline inflation unchanged. Given the current subdued economic environment, we expect inflation to hover around current levels, with a temporary deceleration likely
Rates didn't move much in reaction to the EU trade deal. If anything, eurozone markets seemed slightly disappointed by the details. The focus will now be on upcoming data releases. In the US, we have important jobs data this week, which may drive the next rates move. Meanwhile, Dutch pension reforms could leave an important mark on fixed-income markets
Central banks just love to cut rates in gradual, 25 basis-point chunks, don't they? Nobody knows why. And frankly, it doesn’t always make much sense, writes James Smith. Should the ECB cut rates next week? And should the Fed and BoE speed things up?
Passing the new budget through the French parliament may prove difficult and generate more rates volatility. EGB spreads look tight given defence spending ambitions. US Treasuries yields decide to test the upside, and for good reason we think
In May, real wage growth reached its historical average, which appears weak compared to the double-digit increases seen in previous years. This could potentially harm households' perception of their financial situation and, as a result, diminish consumer confidence
At first glance, a 27.3% YoY YTD uptick in aggregate financing looks like cause for celebration, but a closer look shows that this is primarily driven by increased government bond issuance. A much more modest 2.3% YoY uptick in new RMB loans shows that credit demand has remained sluggish despite rate cuts amid weak confidence and heightened uncertainty
The -0.7% month-on-month decline in retail sales coincided with a -0.3% decline in overall services activity in April. While surveys had previously indicated potential weakness in eurozone services for the second quarter, this concrete data confirms our expectations that GDP growth between April and June may have been negative
The President of the National Bank of Poland first called yesterday's cut as an adjustment of rates, not the beginning of a cycle of cuts. Finally, he signalled a September cut with the target rate seen in the range of 3-3.5%. We see a 50 basis point cut in September and a target rate of 3.5% in 2026
The Big Beautiful Bill passed in US Congress, putting even more pressure on the fiscal outlook and thus longer-dated USTs. US payrolls came in better than expected, contributing to higher yields across the curve. The ECB minutes show more members are concerned about undershooting inflation, keeping the 1.75% market-implied landing zone firmly intact
Payrolls day remains the most important one for markets. Even going into most pivotal Fed meetings we typically know what's going to happen. For payrolls, we think we know. And even if we did, the print itself can have a perverse effect. The big fear is we get a really bad one sometime soon. Feeling bullish? Fair. But, weak payrolls also means a higher deficit
FX Daily: Lacklustre dollar support into key events. Yesterday’s US data (JOLTS and ISM manufacturing) were stronger than expected, but this provided only limited support for a dollar still suffering from an asymmetrical negative bias. To watch today: ADP payrolls, Challenger layoffs, the Big Beautiful Bill heading for final House approval and Trump’s tariff threats ahead of the 9 July deadline
Asia week ahead: data to show uptick in inflation in South Korea and Indonesia. CPI data will be released in Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Korea next week. A rise in inflation is expected, driven by higher oil prices. Elsewhere, China is set to release its PMI and new export orders, while Japan will publish the Tankan survey and industrial production data
Retail sales of goods at constant prices increased by 4.4% year-on-year in May (ING: 5.2%; consensus: 4.3%), following an impressive April (partly due to calendar effects), when retail sales growth reached 7.6% YoY, the highest in nearly three years.
May's national economic data has fallen short of consensus expectations. The anticipated recovery remains elusive, although the available data does not include the performance in services and SMEs. The data supports further rate cuts by the National Bank of Poland, but the Middle East conflict complicates July's monetary policy easing
Bank Indonesia (BI) held its policy rate at 5.5%, citing global economic conditions and Indonesian rupiah stability. Despite tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, BI hinted at rate cuts later this year to boost growth
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.5%, reducing Japanese Government Bond purchases from 400bn yen to 200bn yen starting in April 2026. Governor Kazuo Ueda is cautious about US tariffs and their negative impact on investment and wages, while expressing no immediate concerns about inflation. We no longer expect a hike in the third quarter
Czech industrial producer prices continued to decline on both an annual and monthly basis in May, keeping the outlook for industry rather calm. Meanwhile, pricing in the construction and service sectors has become more potent, which will keep consumer inflation above the central bank's target
The downward revision of May's CPI off the back of lower core inflation increases the likelihood that the National Bank of Poland may kick off its monetary easing cycle at its upcoming meeting in July. The picture should be a lot clearer in September, though, so it's a close call. We'll be keeping a close eye on any communication from the central bank.
It's not every day I compare the global economy to Tom Cruise's blockbuster movies. But amid the noise, the stunts and the audience's appreciation and shock, this is a plot worth following
Canada escaped Trump’s tariff announcement yesterday unscathed, as products that are eligible under the USMCA agreement will remain tariff-free. We expect that this exemption will cover over 80% of Canadian trade, and the tariff rate on Canadian exports to the US would only rise by 5.5% under Trump’s proposals.
Shares of U.S. banks tumbled to multi- month lows, after President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs plan sparked fears of a recession and a slowdown in consumer spending that could hurt earnings. Big U.S. banks will start reporting earnings this month, with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley announcing their first quarter earnings on April 11.
President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariffs could hamstring Big Tech's billion-dollar efforts to build artificial intelligence infrastructure in the country, likely undermining a key goal of the administration, analysts said.
The decline in Egypt’s annual headline CPI number for February was exceptionally large at over 12pp, but it did not really tell us anything that we did not already know.
In this CEEMEA Economics Analyst, we provide greater detail in support of our forecast for aggressive easing in policy rates over the coming 12 months.
Latest round of tariffs will come into effect on 5 and 9 April. Donald Trump announced the imposition of a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States from 5 April. For countries with which the United States has the biggest trade deficits, higher, individualised reciprocal tariffs will take effect on 9 April.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped 1.3pt to 49pts, returning to the contractionary territory after two months above the neutral level of 50. The survey highlighted a rapid decline in demand, with the new orders index falling 3.4pt to only 45.2, the lowest level in almost two years and almost 10pts below the level only two months ago.
UBS Knowledge Network Cross-Asset Volatility Risk. Edge. Positioning. Flows. Performance.
At 0.76 (vs 0.25 last week) our Risk Index has jumped decisively back into risk-averse territory. The Index bounced off its 100-day moving average suggesting a sustained reduction in investor risk appetite.
Ahead of the tariff announcements markets are trading cautiously. Asian stock markets are marginally higher whilst European futures are indicating a marginally softer opening. UST yields are up but have mainly been going sideways during Asian hours and the Eurex complex is essentially unchanged from last night.
The markets remain on tenterhooks ahead of today's long-awaited announcement of Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs. This decision could heighten concerns about growth, both in the United States and at world level.
President Trump announced tariffs on autos and parts. In line with our expectations, and ahead of the main course expected for April 2nd, the US announced this week 25% tariffs on imports of autos and auto parts.
The US administration is poised to announce a new round of “reciprocal” tariffs on 2 April after imposing a range of tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, a separate set of tariffs on steel, aluminum, and derivative products, and newly announced levies on autos and auto parts.
Japan: the weak JPY has turned from a problem to a nest egg . The level of JPY weakness has changed from a ‘problem’ to a ‘nest egg’ as the Trump administration’s tariff rate hikes require a buffer. With the buffer of a weaker JPY, the auto industry may be able to continue domestic production without having to raise prices significantly in the US in response to higher tariff rates.
Risk assets were down again on Monday in the run-up to what Trump has dubbed Liberation Day on 2 April, when he is due to announce a raft of reciprocal customs tariffs, which would see the trade war take on a global dimension.
We continue to refine the tariff assumptions underlying our global economic and FX outlook, and we believe most tariffs will remain in place from Q2-2025 through the remainder of our forecast horizon. As far as the assumptions, we assume a 20% tariff on China and a 10% tariff on the European Union.
Stocks ended down, while the dollar strengthened as traders awaited auto tariffs to be announced by President Donald Trump. Treasury yields, meanwhile, inched higher as investors weighed potential exemptions to those tariffs. Oil prices jumped on reports of a dip in U.S. crude oil inventories. Gold eased but remained above the $3,000 per ounce level.
The UK CPI was weaker than expected in February at 2.8%yr compared to 3.0%yr in January. Core inflation edged down from 3.7%yr to 3.5%yr, but services inflation held up at 5.0%yr. However, decrease in both was mainly driven by weaker core goods inflation, while services inflation, which the BoE officials follow closely, was unchanged at 5%yr.
Financial markets reacted negatively to President Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on automobile imports, effective from 2 April. US and European equities sold off.
St Louis Fed President Musalem warned that inflationary impact from tariffs might be longer- lasting, prompting Fed to keep interest rates higher.
Treasury and Australian yields were higher, but Gilt yields in the UK fell as the UK government confirmed plans for public spending cuts.
There have been reports on social media that Australian PM, Anthony Albanese, will call an election Friday morning placing the polling date probably on 3 May. Other possible polling dates are 10 May and the last possible date 17 May, but the incumbent Australian Labor Party (ALP) likely wants as short a campaign period as possible having recently overtaken the opposition Liberal-National party coalition (LNP) in the polls and having momentum in its favour.
The announcement by US President, Donald Trump, of 25% tariffs on all car and car part imports into the US weighed on sentiment in Asia. Trump also threatened more tariffs on the EU and Canada if they work against the US. Sentiment received some support from Trump continuing to say he will be lenient on reciprocal tariffs.
As gold broke above $3,000/toz on March 14, we address the most frequently asked questions on the outlook for gold.
As gold broke above $3,000/toz on March 14, we address the most frequently asked questions on the outlook for gold.
Last week's FOMC meeting appeared to come as a relief to many market participants as two cuts remained in the dots for both this year and next (some had expected a cut to come out for this year). Further, Chair Powell seemed to downplay concerns about inflation, offering a bit more emphasis on the growth side of the mandate than perhaps assumed going into the meeting.
Stronger seasonals, lower rates and oversold momentum indicators support our call for a tradeable rally from ~5500. A weaker dollar and stabilizing Mag 7 EPS revisions can drive capital back to the US. Beyond the tactical rally, volatility will likely persist this year.
The Euro area composite flash PMI improved to 50.4 in March (vs. 50.2 in February), a touch below consensus and close to our own expectations. The improvement was led by the manufacturing output index, which increased by 1.8pt to 50.7, the highest level in more than three years, while the services activity index edged down slightly to 50.4.
CFTC’s data suggest room for a short-term rebound in USDJPY up to around 153
Hopes and fears surrounding US tariffs continue to keep the market on its toes. Yesterday, the hope that the next wave of US tariffs would finally be more limited and targeted, combined with a very solid US services ISM report, fuelled a rebound by US risk assets (led by US techs) and the US dollar, and pushed US bond yields higher in a pro-growth configuration.
Post-FOMC strategy thoughts Dovish Fed – high convictions in long JPY/KRW, short S$NEER, long 10y IGB; increase short CNH basket conviction; enter short THB/JPY.
Markets got a reprieve from the Fed as it slowed the pace of QT while leaving two cuts on the table. Powell's comments also signaled willingness to look through tariff price level impacts as transitory inflation.
Sentiment was given a lift in Asia by newswire reports that US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs may be of narrower scope than envisaged by investors. Trump’s National Economic Council director, Kevin Hassett, said markets are overestimating the scope of the tariffs.
After the very fragile post-FOMC rebound, Friday's session saw American indices (notably techs) extend their recovery, aided by more measured remarks from Donald Trump, who said “there’ll be flexibility” on reciprocal tariffs.
PMI data released today will be closely scrutinised to gauge how the eurozone economy has navigated uncertainty triggered by Trump’s tariffs threats. Besides some sentiment effect, it is too early to assess the impact on the economy of Germany’s bold policy response to recent geopolitical events, with a commitment to heavily invest domestically.
As a new fiscal discipline, we need a new fiscal target that can take into account macroeconomic conditions, guiding net domestic fund demand to be around -5%. The previous fiscal target of achieving a primary balance surplus was flawed because it aimed to achieve a surplus regardless of macroeconomic conditions, making it impossible to sustainably expand the size of the economy.
Until the corporate savings rate attains a normal negative level and structural deflationary pressures are eliminated, the policy mix of monetary and fiscal policies should maintain the expanding power of the Japanese economy. The increased predictability of firms’ sustained nominal GDP expansion would cause firms to shift their management strategies from cost cutting to investment.
Dollar consolidates weekly gains, NOK and CAD buck trend in G10, AUD and JPY underperform. RUB and BRL excel in EM, intervention lifts TRY from record lows. 2y UST steady at 3.96%, 10y UST on 200dma (4.23%), US HY credit tightens to 314bp. Oil prices bid after US tightens sanctions on Iran, OPEC+ plans new supply cut to compensate for overproduction.
The disruptive agenda of the US administration, including the greater initial emphasis on tariffs and anti-immigration measures rather than pro-growth tax measures and significant uncertainty around US relations with allies & adversaries alike has undermined the US exceptionalism thesis.
Market sentiment was rather positive ahead of the FOMC statement, with European equities rising and € credit spreads tightening. In the wake of the monetary policy decision, equities rose and bond yields eased further after Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve saw no need for drastic action in the face of Donald Trump's trade war.
Now that the fiscal package has been voted by the Bundestag and that Trump and Putin have had a lengthy phone call on Ukraine, the markets’ attention will shift to the raft of central bank meetings scheduled this week, kicking off with the BoJ and Fed. The BoJ maintained a monetary status quo.
• We expect the FOMC to hold rates steady at next week’s meeting, keeping the fed funds range at 4.25%-4.50%.
• The FOMC’s economic projections should begin to reflect prospects for higher, tariff-fueled inflation and softer US economic growth.
• We see policy remaining on hold through year end and rate cuts restarting in Q1 2026.
Three quick highlights from China.
• Overnight news: UST Secretary Bessent said “not worried about the markets”; US strikes Houthis; Chinese economic data beats; China to announce steps to revive spending; US President Trump to speak to Russia President Putin Tuesday
• Data and events: US retail sales
• UK Economic: Welfare spending in the crosshairs ahead of Spring Statement
The US imposed steel and aluminium tariffs which sparked a response from the EU. The emerging trade tensions saw Asian equity markets close lower.
A potential ceasefire in Ukraine added support to European equities despite rising trade tensions between the EU and the US with the EU announcing retaliatory tariffs.
A weak than expected US CPI print saw the sell off in bonds continue in the US and oil prices rise.
Metals prices lifted over concerns of tariffs and tight supply.
The 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium announced by Donald Trump in February came into force on Wednesday. They affect a number of countries, but in particular Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Germany and several Asian countries.
During the course of 4Q24, European 12M forward earnings estimates started to improve, while they softened slightly in the US after increasing by 13% in 2024, as Chart 2 shows. This was largely driven by expectations of gradually increasing growth in Europe, while growth rates in the US are expected to slow slightly.
The European stock market has been outperforming the MSCI AC World since the start of 2025. Despite the solid fundamentals of the US economy, rising uncertainty triggered by the Trump administration is increasing the attractiveness of European stocks.
Europe’s defence spending is set to increase significantly in the next few years. If properly channelled towards technological development, this could boost productivity without decreasing social spending.
The economic prosperity of recent decades is under pressure from geopolitical and technological paradigm changes. The golden years of globalization are over, and increasingly rough winds in global trade are exposing Germany's structural weaknesses.
Further escalation yesterday in the trade war between the United States and Canada. In response to the announcement of a Canadian surcharge on electricity exported to the United States, Donald Trump retaliated by raising tariffs on aluminium and steel by a further 25% to 50%, although he later retracted this decision.
President Trump said that he would add an extra 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum - raising those tariffs to 50% - if Canada does not remove the 25% tariff it placed on electricity from three US states. Ontario's Premier Ford said that he agreed to suspend the 25% electricity surcharge.
In February 2025, Japanese investors net purchased JPY3.0trn ($19.5bn) of foreign securities (equities + long-term bonds), the largest net purchase since August 2024 (Fig. 2 ). The main contributor was net purchases of foreign bonds by pension funds and banks (Fig. 3 ).
US Treasury yields have been on a rollercoaster this year. But we expect the appeal of borrowing strategies to rise as the global rate-cutting cycle continues. Borrowing can form part of a financial plan, subject to awareness of its risks.
We do not expect large, broad, and sustained US tariffs, but repeated threats of higher tariffs on key trading partners and a lack of policy visibility could weigh on business investment and hiring even if they are never imposed. More volatile markets require an increased focus on portfolio diversification and hedging approaches.
Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announced plans for a major increase in defense and infrastructure spending. If passed by the German parliament, the plans would mark a significant fiscal shift that has the potential to boost growth and support Eurozone assets.
The US has added 10% tariffs on China twice this year, and, contrary to expectations that tariffs should result in a weaker CNY, spot USD/CNY has drifted lower from 7.33 pre-inauguration to around 7.25 currently. We attribute this to a few factors. The broad USD itself has weakened, Chinese asset markets outlook has improved, and most importantly the CNY fix (which is a policy signal tool) has been stable at around 7.17, thereby restraining the movement in spot USD/CNY.
We have just returned from marketing in the UK over the past week (March 3-7th), which overlapped with announcement of Germany’s unprecedented fiscal package and several tariff related announcements.
CoreWeave, an artificial intelligence startup backed by Nvidia, has signed a five-year contract worth $11.9 billion with OpenAI to provide cloud computing services ahead of its hotly- anticipated stock market launch, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
Given the current macro and geopolitical backdrop globally, the ECB yesterday were unwilling to provide much in the way of strong guidance but the description of the monetary stance being “more meaningfully less restrictive” helped to provide further modest support for yields with EUR/USD extending the significant gains already recorded this week.