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Trump's Tariff Threats Loom Large: Economic Impacts for Canada, Big Banks, and Commodities

Canada's main stock index closed lower as escalating global trade tensions fueled risk-aversion, with strong bank earnings failing to boost market sentiment. 

The S&P/TSX composite index fell 0.79% to end at 25,128.24, following three consecutive sessions of gain. 

The U.S. dollar was rose 0.75% against its Canadian counterpart to C$1.4445, after touching its weakest intraday level since February 4 at 1.4442. It was the fifth straight day of declines for the currency.

 

Trump's Tariff Threats Loom Large: Economic Impacts for Canada, Big Banks, and Commodities
freepik.com | Trump's Tariff Threats Loom Large: Economic Impacts for Canada, Big Banks, and Commodities
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"If you were positioned for relief, this is a slap in the face," said Erik Bregar, director, FX & precious metals risk management at Silver Gold Bull. "It's an angry, get me out of the market, kind of move." 

Trump vows March 4 tariffs for Mexico, Canada, extra 10% for China over fentanyl U.S. President Donald Trump said that his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will go into effect on March 4 and threatened an extra 10% duty on Chinese imports because deadly drugs are still pouring into the U.S. from those countries. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that the fresh tariffs on Chinese import would stack on top of the 10% tariff that he levied on Feb. 4 over the fentanyl opioid crisis, resulting in a cumulative 20% tariff. Trump first announced the new duties on Chinese imports in a post on his Truth Social site that he would impose the additional 10% tariff, effective March 4. In the post, Trump said drugs, namely fentanyl, were still coming into the U.S. at "very high and unacceptable levels," with a large percentage of them the deadly opioid fentanyl. "We cannot allow this scourge to continue to harm the USA, and therefore, until it stops, or is seriously limited, the proposed TARIFFS  scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled," Trump added. "China will likewise be charged an additional 10% Tariff on that date."  

Canada's AAA credit ratings are safe from US tariffs; provinces more at risk Canada enjoys AAA sovereign ratings from two top rating agencies and its finances could withstand a wave of U.S. tariffs, but some of its provinces could take a ratings hit if a trade war persists, analysts and economists said. Ratings agencies said some provinces were more at risk from U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose a 25% duty on most Canadian imports on March 4 due to their disproportionate exposure to U.S. exports or weaker financial positions. A lower credit rating potentially increases government borrowing costs, impacts revenue streams, and increases debt and deficits. "There's no doubt that tariffs ... would have potentially significant differential effects on the provinces," Douglas Offerman, senior director at Fitch Ratings, said in an interview. Ontario and Quebec, the two provincial manufacturing powerhouses, face a significant threat, he said. 

Canada's RBC, TD, CIBC top profit expectations, stay cautious on trade risks Three of Canada's big five lenders - Royal Bank of Canada, TD Bank and CIBC - beat analyst expectations for quarterly profit, but took a cautious stand as tariff and trade risks cloud economic outlook. Heightened  geopolitical uncertainty and an ongoing tariff threat from the U.S. government could potentially hurt the Canadian economy, slow loan growth and pressure consumers with mortgages. U.S. President Donald Trump vowed that his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will go into effect on March 4. RBC and TD set aside bigger rainy day funds to shield against potential bad loans as U.S. tariffs could impact some manufacturing and industrial loan books. RBC's provision for credit losses rose to C$1.05 billion in the first quarter ended January 31 from C$813 million a year ago and were more than analysts' forecast of C$901.8 million. On an adjusted basis, RBC earned C$3.62 per share, compared with analysts' estimate of C$3.26. TD's adjusted earnings of C$2.02 per share were higher than the average estimate of C$1.96. CIBC earned C$2.20 per share on an adjusted basis, surpassing the estimate of C$1.97. 

EXCLUSIVE-TD Bank appoints compliance monitor after $3 billion US penalty for money laundering Canadian lender TD Bank appointed Guidepost Solutions as the compliance  monitor for its anti-money laundering program after U.S. regulators hit the lender with $3 billion in penalties last year. Guidepost Solutions will monitor TD's business in the United States as part of a multi-year program to fix TD's anti-money laundering problems and strengthen its controls, Chief Financial Officer Kelvin Tran told Reuters in an interview. The costs for the monitor will be paid from a $500 million pot that TD has earmarked for compliance work. The details on the monitor are being reported by Reuters for the first time. "AML remediation is our top priority at TD, and we're making steady progress," Tran said. TD became the largest bank in U.S. history to plead guilty to violating a federal law aimed at preventing money laundering, and agreed to pay more than $3 billion in penalties to resolve the charges in October. 

Impala could close Canadian palladium mine early after price rout Impala Platinum (Implats) could wind down its palladium mine in Canada earlier than planned if there is no immediate recovery in metal prices, CEO Nico Muller said after a 43% slump in first-half profit. Palladium has plunged from its March 2022 peak of about $3,440 an ounce to current levels around $921 an ounce. Muller said Implats could close the Canada mine before the end of its remaining two years, but no final decision has been taken yet. "I would not be surprised if, in the course of the next few months we come to a position that an accelerated and responsible wind down of that operation seems to be economically the most effective way to deal with (Impala) Canada," Muller said on a media call.  

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LSEG

LSEG

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Topics

commodity priceseconomic outlookgeopolitical riskscorporate earningstrade warTrump tariffs

Canada credit ratings

RBC earnings

TD Bank

money laundering penalty

Impala Platinum

palladium price slump

U.S.-Canada relations

trade uncertainties

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