Bitcoin's Volatility Continues: Failed Breakout and Accumulation Signal Positive Outlook
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The previous trading week became one of the most volatile in the past month. Bitcoin made a bullish breakout beyond the range of $26.6k–$27.5k, but later experienced a price retracement to familiar levels. The previous week ended with another attempt by the asset to break the upper boundary of the $26.6k–$27.5k range.
The price increase occurred against the backdrop of synergy between Asian and American investors who were opening long positions. Despite consolidated efforts, Bitcoin failed to break through, resulting in a decline in the asset. BTC begins the new trading week with a retest of the lower boundary of the channel at $26.6k.
Fundamental background
The attempt to achieve a bullish breakthrough at the $27.5k level can also be attributed to positive macroeconomic statistics. It is reported that the unemployment rate in the United States reached 3.7% against expectations of 3.5%. This is an indirect consequence of the Federal Reserve's policy of raising key rates and withdrawing liquidity from the global economy.
BBG reports that macro data have instilled optimism in investors regarding the Federal Reserve's policy.
The majority on the CME expects a pause in key rate hikes in June, which could have a positive impact on liquidity. The resolution of the situation with the national debt can also instill confidence in the crypto and other markets.
It is reported that an agreement to increase the debt ceiling is already awaiting the signature of the U.S. President. Once the agreement comes into effect, the U.S. Treasury will receive a stimulus of about $4 trillion. Considering that USDT market capitalization has reached an all-time high, June could become a month of bullish movement.
BTC investors continue to accumulate
A classic pause in active BTC trading is accompanied by massive accumulation, which is a bullish signal. Over the past three weeks, BTC daily trading volumes have not exceeded $20 billion, and the number of unique addresses fluctuates around 700k-800k. These figures are insufficient for significant price movements, and thus BTC remains within the $26.6k–$27.5k range.
Meanwhile, almost all categories of investors are accumulating BTC volumes en masse, creating a strong foothold for further price increases. It is reported that BTC miners accumulated cryptocurrencies worth $540 million in the last week. Glassnode reports that "whales" continue to aggressively increase their Bitcoin holdings.
It is important to note that cryptocurrency trading started on the Hong Kong Exchange last week, which can lead to even more rapid accumulation and increased liquidity. Taking into account on-chain metrics and fundamental factors, it can be concluded that BTC will resume its upward movement in the near future.
BTC/USD Analysis
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has retested the upper boundary of the $26.6k–$27.5k channel. Due to increased selling pressure and successful defense of the $27.5k level, the cryptocurrency's price started a sharp decline and reached the lower boundary of the channel at $26.6k. Bulls need to maintain the price within the current range to stabilize the situation.
Technical metrics on the daily chart indicate a continuation of the downward price movement. The stochastic oscillator is still in a bearish crossover, and the RSI has broken below the 45 level. There is some activation of buyers; however, the current volume is insufficient to protect the level.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the main technical metrics have started to turn upwards. However, bears still have the advantage, and there is a possibility of further decline towards the $26.4k–$26.5k zone. That area is where the second order block is located, which sellers need to surpass to reach $25.5k.
Conclusion
Bitcoin continues to consolidate within the range of $26.6k-$27.5k with active accumulation. If the current dynamics are maintained, there is a high probability of the resumption of an upward movement for Bitcoin. As for short-term targets, buyers need to hold the $26.5k level to achieve the potential bullish scenario.
