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Dollar in Focus as Dual NFP Report and Global FX Shifts Shape Market Outlook
EM currencies are generally ending the year on a strong footing – enjoying the benefits of lower core policy rates, a modestly weaker dollar and many offering high carry. There is a lot of focus on the renminbi at the moment and whether China's $1tr trade surplus will drive the renminbi much stronger. For today, the focus is on US jobs and eurozone PMIs
UK Wage Growth Slows Sharply, Paving the Way for Rate Cuts
Wage growth is slowing quickly, at a time when the wider jobs market keeps cooling. The UK is becoming less of an outlier on inflation, and we expect a rate cut on Thursday and two further moves next year
Eurozone PMI Signals Resilient Growth Despite Manufacturing Slowdown
The composite PMI dropped from 52.8 to 51.9 in December, with manufacturing output declining again. Overall, this reading still corresponds to decent GDP growth for the eurozone in the fourth quarter of 2025
Fed Faces Liquidity Pressures as Balance Sheet Freeze Meets Market Ti
A 25bp cut is practically certain. It's 90% discounted. Not delivering is not really a viable option, given the way the Fed behaves. But, expect a hawkish cut, with a pause to be heavily intimated for the January meeting. It will be interesting to see next Fed liquidity management steps; likely they will need to buy more bills than the MBS roll-off requires
France’s Social Security Budget Passes by Narrow Margin, Raising Fiscal Risks for 2026
France passed its social security budget, but the state budget remains unresolved, and the deficit outlook is worsening
Energy and Commodities Update: Oil Weakness Persists, Silver Hits Record High, and WASDE Shifts Grain Outlook
Oil prices traded to their lowest level since late October amid expectations of a surplus, while European gas prices appear to have found a floor for now
China’s CPI Rises to a 21-Month High, Easing Deflation Fears but Keeping PPI in the Red
A surge in fresh vegetable prices helped propel China’s food inflation back to positive territory and headline CPI inflation to a 21-month high of 0.7% year on year in November
Fed Decision Day: Dissent Risks, Dot Plot Signals, and Global FX Implications
After this week's 'rate ripple', the focus today switches to North America. Here we have policy meetings for both the Fed and the Bank of Canada. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a hawkish cut, which leaves the risk on short-dated US rates and the dollar skewed to the upside. For the BoC, there could be some pushback against rate hikes priced for 2026
Industrial Output Weakens in October, Underscoring Italy’s Slow Exit from Stagnation
Italy’s industrial production data for October points to renewed weakness, tempering expectations of a stronger economic pickup in the final quarter of the year
Inflation Drops Sharply, but Stability Remains Elusive
Inflation in Hungary decreased in November, but this was mainly due to base effects and government measures. We might be starting on the downward part of the rollercoaster right now – but that means the ride may be set to shoot upwards next
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Eurozone Restructurings: Reshoring Remains Limited Despite Supply Chain Risks
Global supply chain problems and geopolitical concerns may have triggered debate among businesses about reshoring production closer to home, but the numbers tell us a different story. Reported euro area reshorings have steadily declined after being surpassed by offshorings in 2019, suggesting global supply chains remain deeply integrated
FX Outlook: Geopolitics, Central Bank Moves, and Key Currency Developments
The UK Budget announcement (12.30 GMT) will see markets weigh both fiscal and inflationary implications. Sterling faces moderate downside risks in a non-inflationary, fiscally tight scenario, and severe risks if fiscal sustainability is called into doubt. Elsewhere, the dollar has more potential to depreciate despite yesterday’s correction