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Fed Decision Day: Dissent Risks, Dot Plot Signals, and Global FX Implications

Fed Decision Day: Dissent Risks, Dot Plot Signals, and Global FX Implications

After this week's 'rate ripple', the focus today switches to North America. Here we have policy meetings for both the Fed and the Bank of Canada. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a hawkish cut, which leaves the risk on short-dated US rates and the dollar skewed to the upside. For the BoC, there could be some pushback against rate hikes priced for 2026

Investing | ING Economics
Japan: Large Fiscal Stimulus to Boost Growth and Curb Inflation, JGB Pressur

Japan: Large Fiscal Stimulus to Boost Growth and Curb Inflation, JGB Pressur

Japan's stimulus package targets inflation stabilisation, strengthening defence and diplomacy, and sustainable growth. It should spur short-term growth and reduce inflation, but may put pressure on JGBs. The BoJ's policy normalisation will likely continue, though it faces challenges and may proceed at a slower pace

Real estate | ING Economics
Energy and Commodities Update: Oil Weakness Persists, Silver Hits Record High, and WASDE Shifts Grain Outlook

Energy and Commodities Update: Oil Weakness Persists, Silver Hits Record High, and WASDE Shifts Grain Outlook

Oil prices traded to their lowest level since late October amid expectations of a surplus, while European gas prices appear to have found a floor for now

Real estate | ING Economics
France’s Social Security Budget Passes by Narrow Margin, Raising Fiscal Risks for 2026

France’s Social Security Budget Passes by Narrow Margin, Raising Fiscal Risks for 2026

France passed its social security budget, but the state budget remains unresolved, and the deficit outlook is worsening

Business | ING Economics
Fed Faces Liquidity Pressures as Balance Sheet Freeze Meets Market Ti

Fed Faces Liquidity Pressures as Balance Sheet Freeze Meets Market Ti

A 25bp cut is practically certain. It's 90% discounted. Not delivering is not really a viable option, given the way the Fed behaves. But, expect a hawkish cut, with a pause to be heavily intimated for the January meeting. It will be interesting to see next Fed liquidity management steps; likely they will need to buy more bills than the MBS roll-off requires

Economy | ING Economics
Eurozone PMI Signals Resilient Growth Despite Manufacturing Slowdown

Eurozone PMI Signals Resilient Growth Despite Manufacturing Slowdown

The composite PMI dropped from 52.8 to 51.9 in December, with manufacturing output declining again. Overall, this reading still corresponds to decent GDP growth for the eurozone in the fourth quarter of 2025

Investing | ING Economics
UK Wage Growth Slows Sharply, Paving the Way for Rate Cuts

UK Wage Growth Slows Sharply, Paving the Way for Rate Cuts

Wage growth is slowing quickly, at a time when the wider jobs market keeps cooling. The UK is becoming less of an outlier on inflation, and we expect a rate cut on Thursday and two further moves next year

Stocks | ING Economics
Dollar in Focus as Dual NFP Report and Global FX Shifts Shape Market Outlook

Dollar in Focus as Dual NFP Report and Global FX Shifts Shape Market Outlook

EM currencies are generally ending the year on a strong footing – enjoying the benefits of lower core policy rates, a modestly weaker dollar and many offering high carry. There is a lot of focus on the renminbi at the moment and whether China's $1tr trade surplus will drive the renminbi much stronger. For today, the focus is on US jobs and eurozone PMIs

Forex | ING Economics
Industrial Output Weakens in October, Underscoring Italy’s Slow Exit from Stagnation

Industrial Output Weakens in October, Underscoring Italy’s Slow Exit from Stagnation

Italy’s industrial production data for October points to renewed weakness, tempering expectations of a stronger economic pickup in the final quarter of the year

Stocks | ING Economics
Germany’s Economy: Three Years of Stagnation With Only Limited Signs of Recovery

Germany’s Economy: Three Years of Stagnation With Only Limited Signs of Recovery

FOREX
ING Economics
USD Overvaluation Persists as Geopolitics Dominate and JPY Faces Intervention Risks

USD Overvaluation Persists as Geopolitics Dominate and JPY Faces Intervention Risks

FOREX
ING Economics
Ukraine Peace Deal Hopes Weigh on EUR Inflation Swaps as Real Rates Hit New Highs

Ukraine Peace Deal Hopes Weigh on EUR Inflation Swaps as Real Rates Hit New Highs

TECHNOLOGY
ING Economics
Commodities Move on Geopolitics and Weather as Oil Rises, Gas Falls, and Nickel Faces Supply Risks

Commodities Move on Geopolitics and Weather as Oil Rises, Gas Falls, and Nickel Faces Supply Risks

COMMODITIES
ING Economics
FX Outlook: Geopolitics, Central Bank Moves, and Key Currency Developments

FX Outlook: Geopolitics, Central Bank Moves, and Key Currency Developments

FOREX
ING Economics
Eurozone Restructurings: Reshoring Remains Limited Despite Supply Chain Risks

Eurozone Restructurings: Reshoring Remains Limited Despite Supply Chain Risks

TECHNOLOGY
FXMAG
France: Services Rebound Amid Industrial Slowdown, Limited Growth Expected in 2026

France: Services Rebound Amid Industrial Slowdown, Limited Growth Expected in 2026

ECONOMY
ING Economics
USD Outlook: Fed Cuts Delayed, Euro and Yen Monitor Stimulus and Intervention

USD Outlook: Fed Cuts Delayed, Euro and Yen Monitor Stimulus and Intervention

FOREX
FXMAG
Poland’s Strong Consumption and Investment Point to Robust Growth with Mild Inflation Outlook

Poland’s Strong Consumption and Investment Point to Robust Growth with Mild Inflation Outlook

BUSINESS
ING Economics
Eurozone Rates Show Resilience Amid Equity Volatility

Eurozone Rates Show Resilience Amid Equity Volatility

TECHNOLOGY
ING Economics
US Markets End Week Mixed Amid Fed Rate Speculation; Dollar Strength Shines

US Markets End Week Mixed Amid Fed Rate Speculation; Dollar Strength Shines

TECHNOLOGY
ING Economics
East Asia Economic Outlook: BOK Holds Rates, Industrial Growth Continues, CPI and GDP Updates

East Asia Economic Outlook: BOK Holds Rates, Industrial Growth Continues, CPI and GDP Updates

INVESTING
ING Economics
Japan’s Inflation Accelerates as Exports and PMI Point to Emerging Recovery

Japan’s Inflation Accelerates as Exports and PMI Point to Emerging Recovery

ECONOMY
ING Economics
Stronger-Than-Expected US Jobs Report Complicates the Fed’s Path

Stronger-Than-Expected US Jobs Report Complicates the Fed’s Path

STOCKS
ING Economics
Sustainability Omnibus I: Assessing the Impact of Proposed Scope Reductions on the European Banking Sector

Sustainability Omnibus I: Assessing the Impact of Proposed Scope Reductions on the European Banking Sector

TECHNOLOGY
ING Economics
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