Next week, we’ll be watching for September’s delayed US jobs report and the release of October's more hawkish Fed minutes, which could dampen hopes for a December rate cut. We also expect the National Bank of Hungary to hold rates while signalling they’ll remain high for some time, with the release of Czech PPI data also due
August’s Italian production numbers suggest that a hoped-for timid improvement in the third quarter has not materialised. While some caveats should apply when dealing with summertime data, it would seem the onus now lies with a growth in services
Eurozone retail sales declined by 0.1% in August compared to July. This sales trend has been roughly flat since April. The worried eurozone consumer is seemingly shying away from the shopping street despite improvements in purchasing power across the bloc
Oil prices came under pressure as noise grows around the potential for further supply increases from OPEC+, while US government shutdown fears provide a further boost to precious metals
Jobless claims dropped back sharply yesterday, a rare positive development for the US jobs market and the dollar. But we still think the greenback is due to give up its post-Fed gains in the near term. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan surprised with a hawkish vote split as it held rates unchanged today, raising the chances of an October hike and JPY outperformance
Private sector employment fell further in August, which should help take wage growth below 4% by year-end. That keeps the door open to further Bank of England easing, though our call for a November rate cut hangs in the
We don't think markets should dismiss another European Central Bank rate cut as eurozone inflation starts to drift below target. At the same time, the prospect of recovering growth – boosted by the German fiscal situation – should keep the back end anchored higher. We therefore see steeper curves in the near term
South Korean manufacturing output, retail sales, and investment increased in July. As fiscal stimulus kicks in, activity is expected to strengthen further in the third quarter. But the boost could prove temporary as tariff headwinds curb exports and increase odds of a Bank of Korea rate cut
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole provided a boost to most risk assets, including large parts of the commodities complex. Yet, uncertainty over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and the risk of tougher sanctions hang over the market
Japan’s July consumer price inflation data was broadly in line with the market consensus. Headline inflation slowed thanks to falling energy and utility prices. Yet, core prices remain sticky and well above 3%. We believe core price trends will prompt the BoJ to hike rates as early as October
The small increase in the composite PMI from 50.9 to 51.1 indicates that the eurozone economy continues to weather global storms quite well. Improvements in new orders and increased hiring add to a picture of accelerating growth, but a muted pace seems likely given significant downside risks to the outlook
Japan's Nikkei index hit a new milestone on Wednesday, crossing the 43,000 mark for the first time ever. The broader Topix index also reached a record high, following strong gains in Wall Street overnight and marking six straight days of growth.
Trump extended the tariff truce with China – which was set to expire today – by 90 more days, announced that gold will finally not be tariffed, and confirmed that Nvidia and AMD will pay the US government a 15% cut of their Chinese sales.
The week starts with gains in most Asian indices, and futures are in the positive in the early hours of the trading week. The S&P 500 posted its strongest week since late June on the back of robust earnings, further appetite for technology stocks, and hopes of progress in the Ukrainian war.
The Bank of England has cut rates by a further 25 basis points to 4% but the statement hints that officials think the easing cycle is nearing its end. Policymakers are visibly worried about a more persistent bout of inflation as the headline number is way higher than target. For now, though, we're sticking to our call of another cut in November
The oil market is awaiting greater clarity on the potential for secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, with President Trump’s deadline for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal scheduled for Friday
Market sentiment is turning sour after last Friday's weak US jobs data that led to the firing of the Chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)! The BLS reported just 73,000 nonfarm payroll gains for June — far below expectations.
Headline inflation fell to 3.1% year-on-year in July from 4.1% in June, yet this was higher than our forecast and market expectations. We don't think this will derail the rate-cut train as disinflation remains on track. We think the National Bank of Poland will continue monetary easing and deliver a rate cut at the next meeting in September
Reports that the EU was close to striking a framework trade deal with the US kept the common currency well bid last week.
US-China trade talks will be the main event of the week, along with China’s July purchasing managers’ index. Other key data reports are expected from South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. The Bank of Japan is seen leaving rates unchanged
Global uncertainty hasn't affected loan demand or credit standards too much in the second quarter, which means that the outlook for investment is not currently deteriorating. Then again, this still gives us a view of investments muddling through
UK markets are beginning to price in the possibility that a new Chancellor could change the fiscal rules and loosen Britain's purse strings, at a time when annual debt issuance is already perilously high. That seems like a bit of a leap at this stage, but once again, Gilts are dragging UK asset markets lower
Everything you need to know as we near the end of the US 90-day tariff pause. Starting at 12:01 AM EST on 9 July, reciprocal tariffs ranging from 11% to 50% will be reinstated unless formal trade agreements, such as the US/UK agreement, or high-level deals like the one between the US and China, are established. What can we expect regarding future trade deals, tariff rates, and the ongoing US/China dispute?
