Trade negotiations

Swiss Growth Slows Amid Trade Tensions; AUD and NZD Diverge on Central Bank Moves

The Swiss franc recovered some of its losses last week. Economic data continues to point to disruptions from Trump’s upending of global trade. After a jump in June, real exports sank in July (-2.7% MoM). US-bound exports rose 1.1%, as buyers raced against time to avoid paying steep levies on products such as watches or machinery.

US Set to Announce New Round of Reciprocal Tariffs Amid Global Trade Tensions

The US administration is poised to announce a new round of “reciprocal” tariffs on 2 April after imposing a range of tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, a separate set of tariffs on steel, aluminum, and derivative products, and newly announced levies on autos and auto parts. 

US to Announce Reciprocal and Sectoral Tariffs on 2 April, Impacting Asian Economies

• US President Donald Trump has pledged to announce reciprocal tariffs as well as tariffs on specific goods on 2 April. 
• Vietnam, India, China, Taiwan and Thailand would likely be more vulnerable to potential reciprocal tariffs. Singapore, Malaysia and Korea, followed by Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand are exposed to sector-specific tariffs. 

US-Ukraine Talks Stall, Tariffs Loom: FX Market Prepares for a Pivotal Week

As markets assess the implications of the Zelenskyy-Trump clash on Friday, the focus today is whether US tariffs on Mexico and Canada will go ahead. The FX market is not pricing in 25% duties as a base case, and still leans in favour of either smaller tariffs or another last minute deal. Downside risks for CAD and MXN are therefore sizeable.