Treasuries are treading water, and really should have performed better on a risk-off Tuesday. But the 10yr seems content at above 4% for now. The 2yr has more open road to trek back down to 3.5%. Wednesday’s refunding announcement should be a box-ticking exercise. The plumbing of the money markets is where all the drama is - keep an eye on it
The US remains in a steady state along the coupon curve. But there’s a lot going on in the money markets pipes as repo tightness persists. As we head into the Federal Reserve meeting, the big call would be to maintain the MBS roll-off and replace it with buying of T-bills, while broadly ending quantitative tightening
Gold started 2025 on a strong footing, following a stellar performance in 2024. Barring possible setbacks, we believe that underlying factors will continue to support gold this year.
