recession risks

Gold Surge Continues Amid Rising Economic and Geopolitical Fears; Target USD 3,200/oz

• Gold prices rallied just shy of 10% in March, surpassing USD 3,100/oz to extend the year-to-date gains to 19% (after rising 27% in 2024).

• A surge in investment demand is behind the latest moves, with comments by US President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, as well as weak US consumer survey data, amplifying market fears as we approach the 2 April tariff announcements. The acceleration of ETF buying marks a sharp reversal from the outflows of this time last year. 

What does President Trump mean for markets?

We do not expect large, broad, and sustained US tariffs, but repeated threats of higher tariffs on key trading partners and a lack of policy visibility could weigh on business investment and hiring even if they are never imposed. More volatile markets require an increased focus on portfolio diversification and hedging approaches.