politics

EUR Under Pressure as Risk Sentiment Sours; CEE Currencies in Focus

EUR/USD continues to grind lower as it has for the last week. Rate differentials have not moved much at all this week and in fact have been mildly supportive for EUR/USD.

South Korea Jobless Rate Falls, but Weak Participation and Sector Losses Signal Fragile Labour Market

South Korea’s unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to 2.5% in July, despite private sector hiring softening. Although weak domestic demand requires supportive macro policies, the BoK is likely to take a wait-and-see approach in August to see if property prices m

Dutch Inflation Slows to 2.5% in July, but Persistent Service Costs Keep 2% Target Out of Reach

Inflation in the Netherlands continued its downward trajectory in July, dropping to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.8% in June. A sustained return to the 2% target is not in sight yet, however, as service inflation remains quite stubborn

Global Markets Show Mixed Signals Amid Hawkish BoE Cut and Geopolitical Developments

Today's huge turn in the US stocks have sent another round of confusion in the daily cross-asset picture.

Bank of England Blinks, but Not Dovish Enough for Markets

The Bank of England has cut rates by a further 25 basis points to 4% but the statement hints that officials think the easing cycle is nearing its end. Policymakers are visibly worried about a more persistent bout of inflation as the headline number is way higher than target. For now, though, we're sticking to our call of another cut in November 

Hungarian Industry Slips Further as Retail Growth Remains Uneven

The incoming industrial and retail data for June did not alter the overall picture of the recent dichotomy in trends. Industrial production continues to decline, while retail sales are rising. We do not expect these trends to change significantly for the remainder of the year

Tariff Pressures vs. Earnings Power: AI, Pricing Strength, and the Case for Staying Overweight U.S. Stocks

• U.S. corporate earnings resilience persists as tariff impacts become clearer. We stay overweight U.S. stocks but get granular while assessing the tariff fallout. 

• U.S. stocks fell and bond yields slid after soft U.S. jobs data suggested slowing activity. We see many macro crosscurrents at play, muddying the outlook. 

• U.S. trade data will show how much tariffs are impacting imports. The Bank of England is expected to cut policy rates. 

Markets Rally on Dovish Fed Bets Despite Tariff Risks, Uncertainty; BoK Stays Cautious as Inflation Holds Steady

The week kicked off on a positive note as investors rushed to buy the dips from last week's correction. While the European indices remain under the pressure of tariffs, there are now two distinct camps regarding whether the major US indices should return to fresh all-time highs or whether a further correction is in order.

Eurozone Bank Lending Rebounds, but Signals Remain Mixed

Bank lending growth accelerated again in June, indicating that global economic uncertainty is not significantly dampening lending at this time

Integrating Electrons and Molecules: A Dual Path to Climate Neutrality

The future of energy hinges on integrating sustainable molecules with electrification. We explore how sustainable biogas, heat, hydrogen, and hybrid solutions can pave the way to green, reliable and affordable energy systems

Tariffs Under Pressure: What’s Next for Global Trade?

US President Donald Trump’s 90-day trade reprieve is ending. Tariff noise is back, but does it really matter? US inflation has stayed surprisingly benign and the economy is holding up, despite the rollercoaster so far. But expect that to change, writes James Smith, as he and the team tackle another big week in the world of macro and markets

June PMIs Hint at Recovery, But ASEAN Remains Uneven and Exposed

Asia's manufacturing PMI improves, but trade risks are looming. Manufacturing PMI improved for Asia in June, reflecting a slightly positive business sentiment and helped by a massive reduction in tariffs on China in May. However, looking ahead, we expect Asia export growth to slow, resulting in softer manufacturing and overall GDP growth

Tariffs, Deadlines, and Strategic Pressure: Washington’s Trade Playbook Unfolds

Everything you need to know as we near the end of the US 90-day tariff pause. Starting at 12:01 AM EST on 9 July, reciprocal tariffs ranging from 11% to 50% will be reinstated unless formal trade agreements, such as the US/UK agreement, or high-level deals like the one between the US and China, are established. What can we expect regarding future trade deals, tariff rates, and the ongoing US/China dispute?

Trump’s Fiscal Plans Deepen Deficit Risks as Debt Surges Past 100% of GDP

How President Trump's plans will impact the US deficit. Big isn’t beautiful when it comes to government debt, but tariffs and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) help to plug the hole left by President Trump’s latest fiscal bill. The net effect will be weaker growth, with US government debt remaining on a worrying trajectory