policy

Polish Economy Shows Signs of Stagnation Despite Calendar-Driven Industrial Boost

May's national economic data has fallen short of consensus expectations. The anticipated recovery remains elusive, although the available data does not include the performance in services and SMEs. The data supports further rate cuts by the National Bank of Poland, but the Middle East conflict complicates July's monetary policy easing

FOMC Outlook: Keeping Rates Steady Amid Economic Uncertainty

• We expect the FOMC to hold rates steady at next week’s meeting, keeping the fed funds range at 4.25%-4.50%. 

• The FOMC’s economic projections should begin to reflect prospects for higher, tariff-fueled inflation and softer US economic growth. 

• We see policy remaining on hold through year end and rate cuts restarting in Q1 2026.