October inflation was confirmed at 2.8%YoY while core inflation likely moderated to 2.9%YoY from 3.2%YoY in September, driven by softer services prices as businesses face demand constraints. Disinflation is now reaching the services sector, which is a positive sign for monetary policy and gives room for more rate cuts in the coming quarters
The Polish Statistical Office has revised August’s year-on-year CPI inflation upward to 2.9%, from the initial flash estimate of 2.8%. However, we estimate that core inflation eased to 3.1% YoY, maintaining its downward trajectory. We expect policymakers to deliver one more 25bp rate cut this year, in November
The decline in headline inflation to 2.8% YoY in August and further easing of core inflation would likely allow policymakers to cut rates by 25bp in September, but highly expansionary fiscal policy is expected to prompt a cautious approach ahead. Rate setters may pause in October and return to the rate cut discussion in November
Trigger warning: this article contains the greatest puns you'll ever read on this website. Oh, and James Smith's look at the week ahead...
Polish headline inflation has been confirmed at 3.1% YoY in July, from 4.1% YoY in June, as the effect of the partial unfreeze of energy prices in mid-2024 died out. With inflation within the tolerance band of the National Bank of Poland's target (2.5%, +/- 1ppt), the central bank now has room to continue its monetary easing cycle
