The ISM manufacturing index suggests that the US industrial sector remains under pressure from weak growth and tariff-related uncertainty. The one consolation is that inflation pressures appear to be easing, but the Fed hawks will want to see broader evidence of this before backing a December rate cut
Conditions in manufacturing have deteriorated for the fourth consecutive month, which can undoubtedly be viewed as a negative signal for the economy when looking ahead. Although below the expansionary threshold, the PMI is nowhere near the depressed 2023 levels. Should the hard times continue, an adverse effect on growth in 2026 is a possibility
China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was generally encouraging, rebounding to a six-month high in September. Yet, the non-manufacturing PMI disappointed by falling back to neutral levels
August’s PMI remained in the contraction zone, as supply chain issues dampened output. However, new orders increased, and confidence remained upbeat. The Czech economy appears poised to hum along smoothly, with no need for loose monetary policy
The small increase in the composite PMI from 50.9 to 51.1 indicates that the eurozone economy continues to weather global storms quite well. Improvements in new orders and increased hiring add to a picture of accelerating growth, but a muted pace seems likely given significant downside risks to the outlook
The announcement of the reciprocal tariff plan comes against a backdrop of worsening economic data which has been the key factor behind the change in financial market reaction to tariff news from US dollar supportive to dollar negative.
