global trade

Refined Product Strength Drives Oil Prices Higher; Cocoa Market Eases on Improved Supply

The oil market rallied yesterday, boosted by the strength of the refined products market

Supreme Court to Decide on Trump’s Tariff Powers Under IEEPA

Today marks the start of the US Supreme Court hearings regarding the legality of some of the US administration’s tariffs. A ruling is expected before the end of the year

China Shock 2.0: Europe’s Growing Dependence and the New Wave of Industrial Competition

Increased Chinese competition within Europe and in third markets has been a trend that restarted with Covid, and may intensify now as a result of global trade tensions. While stronger Chinese competition can potentially mute eurozone inflation and GDP growth, it is also likely to aggravate problems in key industries

Commodities Update: Oil Rises on OPEC’s Cautious Output Hike, Gold Hits Record High, Coffee Extends Rally

The oil market opened higher in the early trading session today following a modest output hike from OPEC+ for November 2025. Meanwhile, gold continued its rally to new record highs amid the prolonged US shutdown

Eurozone Exports Weaken as US Tariffs Bite and Global Demand Softens

The eurozone's trade balance edged up slightly in July, driven mainly by a drop in imports, while exports also declined modestly. Excluding the energy crisis period, this marks one of the smallest trade surpluses in the past decade

Strategic Volatility and Hedging Amid Tariff Uncertainty: Navigating the Current Market Conditions

UBS Knowledge Network Cross-Asset Volatility Risk. Edge. Positioning. Flows. Performance.

Investor Nerves on Edge as Trump’s Tariff Bombshell Looms

At 0.76 (vs 0.25 last week) our Risk Index has jumped decisively back into risk-averse territory. The Index bounced off its 100-day moving average suggesting a sustained reduction in investor risk appetite.

US Set to Announce New Round of Reciprocal Tariffs Amid Global Trade Tensions

The US administration is poised to announce a new round of “reciprocal” tariffs on 2 April after imposing a range of tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, a separate set of tariffs on steel, aluminum, and derivative products, and newly announced levies on autos and auto parts. 

USD/JPY Holds Near 150 Ahead of Trump Tariff Announcement Despite Soft Tankan Data

It has been a quieter trading session overnight after the risk-off start to the week. The Nikkei 225 index is unchanged after yesterday’s sharp 4.1% sell-off. Similarly, the major foreign exchange rates have been relatively stable overnight ahead of the release tomorrow of President Trump’s plans for “reciprocal tariffs”.

U.S. Tariff Policy and Global Economic Outlook: Refining Assumptions and Impacts

We continue to refine the tariff assumptions underlying our global economic and FX outlook, and we believe most tariffs will remain in place from Q2-2025 through the remainder of our forecast horizon. As far as the assumptions, we assume a 20% tariff on China and a 10% tariff on the European Union.

US Tariff Uncertainty Drives Market Volatility Across Assets

Hopes and fears surrounding US tariffs continue to keep the market on its toes. Yesterday, the hope that the next wave of US tariffs would finally be more limited and targeted, combined with a very solid US services ISM report, fuelled a rebound by US risk assets (led by US techs) and the US dollar, and pushed US bond yields higher in a pro-growth configuration.

USD Reacts to Trade Uncertainty and Peace Hopes; Focus on Escalating Tariffs and Potential Ceasefire

The US dollar has advanced by about 0.4% from the lows late in US trading yesterday after tariff escalation fears receded somewhat after President Trump reversed his earlier announcement to double Canada’s steel and aluminium tariff from 25% to 50%.

China hits US agriculture, says it won't be bullied by fresh Trump tariffs

China retaliated swiftly against fresh U.S. tariffs with hikes to import levies covering $21 billion worth of American agricultural and food products, moving the world's top two economies a step closer towards an all-out trade war.

USD Strength Persists Amid Tariff Risks, But European Currencies May Rebound in 2H

• Fresh tariff concerns last week gave the USD renewed support. US data, however, are dimming the near-term economic growth outlook. This combination poses headwinds for pro-growth currencies, in our view. 

• A potential ceasefire in Ukraine, greater fiscal spending in Europe, and country-specific factors should continue to shape European currencies, but clarity on these drivers still remain scarce. 

Markets Rally as Germany Plans Defense Spending Boost; Oil Drops on OPEC+ Supply News

US equity market recorded the steepest daily losses since mid-December and USD depreciated notably as President Trump confirmed that import tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China will go up, and a weaker manufacturing survey added to market concerns about wakening US growth. 

US Proposes Restrictions on China’s Maritime Dominance. A Threat to Global Supply Chains and Trade Relations

Unlike previous US trade memoranda, the proposed action to tackle China’s dominance in maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding is different. It could lift port call fees or cause inefficiencies in supply lines, affecting US importers, exporters, and consumers.