• The People’s Bank of China has set the USDCNY fixing above 7.20 for the first time since September 2023, and the market may interpret this as a green light for USDRMB to rise to 7.5 to offset the tariff impact.
The US has added 10% tariffs on China twice this year, and, contrary to expectations that tariffs should result in a weaker CNY, spot USD/CNY has drifted lower from 7.33 pre-inauguration to around 7.25 currently. We attribute this to a few factors. The broad USD itself has weakened, Chinese asset markets outlook has improved, and most importantly the CNY fix (which is a policy signal tool) has been stable at around 7.17, thereby restraining the movement in spot USD/CNY.
