Euro rates are near the top of their ranges again. We don't expect the front-end to remain a driver, with now only a 30% chance of an ECB cut priced down the road despite remaining risks around the outlook. Dutch pension reforms appear to help push the 10s30s steeper as dynamics detach from the US curve
Euro rate markets seem to react very little to downside data surprises and geopolitical headlines, which does raise concerns over complacency. Nonetheless, this trend may persist for now as attention shifts to upcoming key calendar events, particularly US data releases
FX Daily: Data holds the key to FOMC balance. We expect the dollar to become more sensitive to data in the near term, as markets seek a catalyst to double down on recent dovish Fed speculation. Employment figures may be subject to closer examination, with the rationale that a softer jobs market can convert a few hawks after mild inflation failed to do so. EUR/USD continues to face upside risks
Stocks ended down, while the dollar strengthened as traders awaited auto tariffs to be announced by President Donald Trump. Treasury yields, meanwhile, inched higher as investors weighed potential exemptions to those tariffs. Oil prices jumped on reports of a dip in U.S. crude oil inventories. Gold eased but remained above the $3,000 per ounce level.
Dollar consolidates weekly gains, NOK and CAD buck trend in G10, AUD and JPY underperform. RUB and BRL excel in EM, intervention lifts TRY from record lows. 2y UST steady at 3.96%, 10y UST on 200dma (4.23%), US HY credit tightens to 314bp. Oil prices bid after US tightens sanctions on Iran, OPEC+ plans new supply cut to compensate for overproduction.
